相关论文: Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity …

We address uncertainty quantification for Gaussian processes (GPs) under misspecified priors, with an eye towards Bayesian Optimization (BO). GPs are widely used in BO because they easily enable exploration based on posterior uncertainty…

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Machine learning surrogates are increasingly employed to replace expensive computational models for physics-based reliability analysis. However, their use introduces epistemic uncertainty from model approximation errors, which couples with…

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of…

Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate…

Complex computer codes are widely used in science and engineering to model physical phenomena. Furthermore, it is common that they have a large number of input parameters. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify those which have the…

Quantification of the impact of uncertainty in material properties as well as the input ground motion on structural responses is an important step in implementing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Among various…

Geologic CO$_2$ storage is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere and mitigating climate change. In this process, coupling between mechanical deformation and fluid flow in fault zones is a key…

This paper introduces a global uncertainty propagation scheme for rigid body dynamics, through a combination of numerical parametric uncertainty techniques, noncommutative harmonic analysis, and geometric numerical integration. This method…

Many engineering systems are subject to spatially distributed uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty that can be modeled as a random field. Altering the mean or covariance of this uncertainty will in general change the statistical distribution of…

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active…

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

We provide a new kriging procedure of processes on graphs. Based on the construction of Gaussian random processes indexed by graphs, we extend to this framework the usual linear prediction method for spatial random fields, known as kriging.…

Biomechanical models often need to describe very complex systems, organs or diseases, and hence also include a large number of parameters. One of the attractive features of physics-based models is that in those models (most) parameters have…

Engineering simulations using boundary-value partial differential equations often implicitly assume that the uncertainty in the location of the boundary has a negligible impact on the output of the simulation. In this work, we develop a…

We present an information-based uncertainty quantification method for general Markov Random Fields. Markov Random Fields (MRF) are structured, probabilistic graphical models over undirected graphs, and provide a fundamental unifying…

Gaussian processes scale prohibitively with the size of the dataset. In response, many approximation methods have been developed, which inevitably introduce approximation error. This additional source of uncertainty, due to limited…

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is frequently used to analyze the influence of uncertain parameters in mathematical models and simulations. In principle, tools from GSA may be extended to analyze the influence of parameters in statistical…

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) methods are useful tools to rank input parameters uncertainties regarding their impact on result variability. In practice, such type of approach is still at an exploratory level for studies relying on 2D…

Complex-valued Gaussian processes are commonly used in Bayesian frequency-domain system identification as prior models for regression. If each realization of such a process were an $H_\infty$ function with probability one, then the same…