相关论文: Bayesian tolerance regions with an application to …

Sample size criteria are often expressed in terms of the concentration of the posterior density, as controlled by some sort of error bound. Since this is done pre-experimentally, one can regard the posterior density as a function of the…

Environmental processes resolved at a sufficiently small scale in space and time will inevitably display non-stationary behavior. Such processes are both challenging to model and computationally expensive when the data size is large.…

We consider chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function while complying with constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The high computational cost of realistic simulations strongly limits the…

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

The problem of testing mutually exclusive hypotheses with dependent test statistics is considered. Bayesian and frequentist approaches to multiplicity control are studied and compared to help gain understanding as to the effect of test…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

A Bayesian filtering algorithm is developed for a class of state-space systems that can be modelled via Gaussian mixtures. In general, the exact solution to this filtering problem involves an exponential growth in the number of mixture…

Gaussian Process Regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important…

Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…

End-to-end simulations play a key role in the analysis of any high-sensitivity CMB experiment, providing high-fidelity systematic error propagation capabilities unmatched by any other means. In this paper, we address an important issue…

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

Bayesian inference and Gaussian processes are widely used in applications ranging from robotics and control to biological systems. Many of these applications are safety-critical and require a characterization of the uncertainty associated…

We consider the problem of estimating the error variance in a general linear model when the error distribution is assumed to be spherically symmetric, but not necessary Gaussian. In particular we study the case of a scale mixture of…

Heavy-tailed models are used as a way to gain robustness against outliers in Bayesian analyses. In frequentist analyses, M-estimators are often employed. In this paper, the two approaches are tentatively reconciled by considering…

Frequentist and Bayesian phase estimation strategies lead to conceptually different results on the state of knowledge about the true value of the phase shift. We compare the two frameworks and their sensitivity bounds to the estimation of…

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…