相关论文: Kernel Learning for Explainable Climate Science

Learning precise surrogate models of complex computer simulations and physical machines often require long-lasting or expensive experiments. Furthermore, the modeled physical dependencies exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior.…

In this work, we propose a simulation-based estimation approach using generative neural networks to determine dependencies of precipitation maxima and their underlying uncertainty in time and space. Within the common framework of max-stable…

Gaussian processes provide a flexible, non-parametric framework for the approximation of functions in high-dimensional spaces. The covariance kernel is the main engine of Gaussian processes, incorporating correlations that underpin the…

Flooding is the most devastating phenomenon occurring globally, particularly in mountainous regions, risk dramatically increases due to complex terrains and extreme climate changes. These situations are damaging livelihoods, agriculture,…

To facilitate effective decision-making, precipitation datasets should include uncertainty estimates. Quantile regression with machine learning has been proposed for issuing such estimates. Distributional regression offers distinct…

Systematic biases in General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs limit their direct applicability in regional planning, making bias correction a technically demanding but necessary step for both short-term and long-term impact assessment.…

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Modeling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned…

Deep learning models for precipitation forecasting often function as black boxes, limiting their adoption in real-world weather prediction. To enhance transparency while maintaining accuracy, we developed an interpretable deep learning…

Gaussian process regression has proven very powerful in statistics, machine learning and inverse problems. A crucial aspect of the success of this methodology, in a wide range of applications to complex and real-world problems, is…

Climate projections using data driven machine learning models acting as emulators, is one of the prevailing areas of research to enable policy makers make informed decisions. Use of machine learning emulators as surrogates for…

The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Accurate monsoon rainfall prediction is vital for India's agriculture, water management, and climate risk planning, yet remains challenging due to sparse ground observations and complex regional variability. We present a multimodal deep…

Accurate and timely estimation of precipitation is critical for issuing hazard warnings (e.g., for flash floods or landslides). Current remotely sensed precipitation products have a few hours of latency, associated with the acquisition and…

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…

Machine learning (ML) has shown significant promise in studying complex geophysical dynamical systems, including turbulence and climate processes. Such systems often display sensitive dependence on initial conditions, reflected in positive…

Environmental phenomena are influenced by complex interactions among various factors. For instance, the amount of rainfall measured at different stations within a given area is shaped by atmospheric conditions, orography, and physics of…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m asl) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012), and…