相关论文: Statistical Properties of the Probabilistic Numeri…

This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…

The Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB) provides a lower bound on the mean square error of any Bayesian estimator under mild regularity conditions. It can be used to benchmark the performance of statistical estimators, and provides a…

Calibration is a pivotal aspect in predictive modeling, as it ensures that the predictions closely correspond with what we observe empirically. The contemporary calibration framework, however, is predominantly focused on prediction models…

We present a preconditioner based on spectral projection that is combined with a deflated Krylov subspace method for solving ill conditioned linear systems of equations. Our results show that the proposed algorithm requires many fewer…

Output uncertainty indicates whether the probabilistic properties reflect objective characteristics of the model output. Unlike most loss functions and metrics in machine learning, uncertainty pertains to individual samples, but validating…

This paper introduces the Nystr\"om PCG algorithm for solving a symmetric positive-definite linear system. The algorithm applies the randomized Nystr\"om method to form a low-rank approximation of the matrix, which leads to an efficient…

Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1)…

Bayesian Model Calibration is used to revisit the problem of scaling factor calibration for semi-empirical correction of ab initio calculations. A particular attention is devoted to uncertainty evaluation for scaling factors, and to their…

Statistical calibration where the curve is nonlinear is important in many areas, such as analytical chemistry and radiometry. Especially in radiometry, instrument characteristics change over time, thus calibration is a process that must be…

Many classification applications require accurate probability estimates in addition to good class separation but often classifiers are designed focusing only on the latter. Calibration is the process of improving probability estimates by…

Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated…

Complex performance measures, beyond the popular measure of accuracy, are increasingly being used in the context of binary classification. These complex performance measures are typically not even decomposable, that is, the loss evaluated…

Classifier calibration does not always go hand in hand with the classifier's ability to separate the classes. There are applications where good classifier calibration, i.e. the ability to produce accurate probability estimates, is more…

Ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed frequencies is critical in high-stakes domains such as clinical decision support, autonomous driving and financial risk assessment. Existing calibration methods typically apply a…

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…

Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks are poorly calibrated and tend to output overconfident…

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

In the recent literature on machine learning and decision making, calibration has emerged as a desirable and widely-studied statistical property of the outputs of binary prediction models. However, the algorithmic aspects of measuring model…

When providing probabilistic forecasts for uncertain future events, it is common to strive for calibrated forecasts, that is, the predictive distribution should be compatible with the observed outcomes. Several notions of calibration are…