相关论文: A Pair of Novel Priors for Improving and Extending…

This paper introduces a new biased estimator for the negative binomial regression model that is a generalization of Liu-type estimator proposed for the linear model in [12]. Since the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is…

We study prior distributions for Poisson parameter estimation under $L^1$ loss. Specifically, we construct a new family of prior distributions whose optimal Bayesian estimators (the conditional medians) can be any prescribed increasing…

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

We consider conditional estimation in two-stage sample size adjustable designs and the following bias. More specifically, we consider a design which permits raising the sample size when interim results look rather promising, and, which…

The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…

This paper proposes a method for improved CTC inference with searched intermediates and multi-pass conditioning. The paper first formulates self-conditioned CTC as a probabilistic model with an intermediate prediction as a latent…

Bayesian inference in generalized linear models requires a prior on the coefficient vector $\beta$. Practitioners naturally reason about response probabilities at specific covariate values, not about abstract log-odds parameters. We develop…

Consider the task of estimating a random vector $X$ from noisy observations $Y = X + Z$, where $Z$ is a standard normal vector, under the $L^p$ fidelity criterion. This work establishes that, for $1 \leq p \leq 2$, the optimal Bayesian…

We present a very simple yet powerful generalization of a previously described model and algorithm for estimation of multiple dipoles from magneto/electro-encephalographic data. Specifically, the generalization consists in the introduction…

Consider the problem of estimating a random variable $X$ from noisy observations $Y = X+ Z$, where $Z$ is standard normal, under the $L^1$ fidelity criterion. It is well known that the optimal Bayesian estimator in this setting is the…

In Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection, prior distributions must be chosen carefully. For example, setting arbitrarily large prior scales for location parameters, which is common practice in estimation problems, can lead to…

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

One of the main goals of mathematical modeling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements…

Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target…

We investigate the frequentist properties of Bayesian procedures for estimation based on the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. Previous theoretical results assumed that the sparsity level, that is, the number of…