相关论文: Statistical inference of random graphs with a surr…

Statistical field theory methods have been very successful with a number of random graph and random matrix problems, but it is challenging to apply these methods to graphs with prescribed degree sequences due to the extensive number of…

Maximum likelihood estimators are often of limited practical use due to the intensive computation they require. We propose a family of alternative estimators that maximize a stochastic variation of the composite likelihood function. Each of…

We propose a deep learning-based surrogate model for stochastic simulators. The basic idea is to use generative neural network to approximate the stochastic response. The challenge with such a framework resides in designing the network…

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical…

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Simulation-based inference methods that feature correct conditional coverage of confidence sets based on observations that have been compressed to a scalar test statistic require accurate modeling of either the p-value function or the…

Sampling-based algorithms are classical approaches to perform Bayesian inference in inverse problems. They provide estimators with the associated credibility intervals to quantify the uncertainty on the estimators. Although these methods…

We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational…

We revisit the problem of the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate for multi-class logistic regression. We show that one method of ensuring its existence is by assigning positive probability to every class in the sample dataset. The…

We consider a class of stochastic programming problems where the implicitly decision-dependent random variable follows a nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic error. The Clarke subdifferential and surrogate functions are not…

We provide a comprehensive semi-parametric study of Bayesian partially identified econometric models. While the existing literature on Bayesian partial identification has mostly focused on the structural parameter, our primary focus is on…

We develop a likelihood methodology which can be used to search for evidence of burst repetition in the BATSE catalog, and to study the properties of the repetition signal. We use a simplified model of burst repetition in which a number…

Functional complex networks have meant a pivotal change in the way we understand complex systems, being the most outstanding one the human brain. These networks have classically been reconstructed using a frequentist approach that, while…

Variational inference is a powerful paradigm for approximate Bayesian inference with a number of appealing properties, including support for model learning and data subsampling. By contrast MCMC methods like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo do not…

In distributed second order optimization, a standard strategy is to average many local estimates, each of which is based on a small sketch or batch of the data. However, the local estimates on each machine are typically biased, relative to…

A model for network panel data is discussed, based on the assumption that the observed data are discrete observations of a continuous-time Markov process on the space of all directed graphs on a given node set, in which changes in tie…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In…

When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no…

We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such…