相关论文: Bayesian causal inference in automotive software e…

Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts.…

We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data…

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in…

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Scoring models support decision-making in financial institutions. Their estimation and evaluation are based on the data of previously accepted applicants with known repayment behavior. This creates sampling bias: the available labeled data…

In the field of road safety, it is common to use responsibility analyses to assess the effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident, among drivers involved in an accident only. Even if this design is now widely…

In the automotive industry, the full cycle of managing in-use vehicle quality issues can take weeks to investigate. The process involves isolating root causes, defining and implementing appropriate treatments, and refining treatments if…

Practitioners making decisions based on causal effects typically ignore structural uncertainty. We analyze when this uncertainty is consequential enough to warrant methodological solutions (Bayesian model averaging over competing causal…

The transition to prescriptive maintenance (PsM) in manufacturing is critically constrained by a dependence on predictive models. Such purely predictive models tend to capture statistical associations in the data without identifying the…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is increasingly employed in critical applications such as materials design and drug discovery. An increasingly popular strategy in BO is to forgo the sole reliance on high-fidelity data and instead use an ensemble…

Intensive testing using model-based approaches is the standard way of demonstrating the correctness of automotive software. Unfortunately, state-of-the-art techniques leave a crucial and labor intensive task to the test engineer:…

Causal inference is the process of using assumptions, study designs, and estimation strategies to draw conclusions about the causal relationships between variables based on data. This allows researchers to better understand the underlying…

Causal inference can be formalized as Bayesian inference that combines a prior distribution over causal models and likelihoods that account for both observations and interventions. We show that it is possible to implement this approach…

Causal discovery aims to automatically uncover causal relationships from data, a capability with significant potential across many scientific disciplines. However, its real-world applications remain limited. Current methods often rely on…

Modern computer vision applications rely on learning-based perception modules parameterized with neural networks for tasks like object detection. These modules frequently have low expected error overall but high error on atypical groups of…

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

As software in industry grows in size and complexity, so does the volume of engineering data that companies generate and use. Ideally, this data could be used for many purposes, including informing decisions on engineering priorities.…

We provide a new flexible framework for inference with the instrumental variable model. Rather than using linear specifications, functions characterizing the effects of instruments and other explanatory variables are estimated using machine…