相关论文: Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of…

There is, in some quarters, concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science…

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results…

In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts…

Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological and scientific progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes.…

AI technology has a long history which is actively and constantly changing and growing. It focuses on intelligent agents, which contain devices that perceive the environment and based on which takes actions in order to maximize goal success…

Transformative AI technologies have the potential to reshape critical aspects of society in the near future. However, in order to properly prepare policy initiatives for the arrival of such technologies accurate forecasts and timelines are…

Perceptions of intelligence shape how learners evaluate and rely on artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Despite rapid advances in AI capabilities, the impact of sustained exposure to these tools on students' valuation of human…

The advancements in generative AI inevitably raise concerns about their risks and safety implications, which, in return, catalyzes significant progress in AI safety. However, as this field continues to evolve, a critical question arises:…

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has renewed interest in building systems that learn and think like people. Many advances have come from using deep neural networks trained end-to-end in tasks such as object recognition, video…

A tool that could suggest new personalized research directions and ideas by taking insights from the scientific literature could significantly accelerate the progress of science. A field that might benefit from such an approach is…

Many leading AI researchers expect AI development to exceed the transformative impact of all previous technological revolutions. This belief is based on the idea that AI will be able to automate the process of AI research itself, leading to…

This study investigates public expectations regarding the likelihood and timing of major artificial intelligence (AI) developments among Swedes. Through a mixed-mode survey (web/paper) of 1,026 respondents, we examined expectations across…

Research has a long history of discussing what is superior in predicting certain outcomes: statistical methods or the human brain. This debate has repeatedly been sparked off by the remarkable technological advances in the field of…

Participants in recent discussions of AI-related issues ranging from intelligence explosion to technological unemployment have made diverse claims about the nature, pace, and drivers of progress in AI. However, these theories are rarely…

The recent successes of AI have captured the wildest imagination of both the scientific communities and the general public. Robotics and AI amplify human potentials, increase productivity and are moving from simple reasoning towards…

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, but given the pace of technological development in artificial intelligence, it is projected to reach human-level intelligence within roughly the next two decades. After that, many…

Artificial Intelligence is now recognized as a general-purpose technology with ample impact on human life. This work aims at understanding the evolution of AI and, in particular Machine learning, from the perspective of researchers'…

The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring with it an ever-increasing willingness to cede decision-making to machines. But rather than just giving machines the power to make decisions that affect us, we need ways to work…

Forecasting AI progress is essential to reducing uncertainty in order to appropriately plan for research efforts on AI safety and AI governance. While this is generally considered to be an important topic, little work has been conducted on…

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) is propelling automated scientific discovery to the next level, with LLM-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) Scientist systems now taking the lead in scientific research. Several influential…