相关论文: The Impact of Sampling Variability on Estimated Co…

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series…

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…

We demonstrate that the forecasting combination puzzle is a consequence of the methodology commonly used to produce forecast combinations. By the combination puzzle, we refer to the empirical finding that predictions formed by combining…

Forecast combination and model averaging have become popular tools in forecasting and prediction, both of which combine a set of candidate estimates with certain weights and are often shown to outperform single estimates. A data-driven…

Forecast combination is widely recognized as a preferred strategy over forecast selection due to its ability to mitigate the uncertainty associated with identifying a single "best" forecast. Nonetheless, sophisticated combinations are often…

It is often reported in forecast combination literature that a simple average of candidate forecasts is more robust than sophisticated combining methods. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "forecast combination puzzle". Motivated…

In recent decades, new methods and approaches have been developed for forecasting intermittent demand series. However, the majority of research has focused on point forecasting, with little exploration into probabilistic intermittent demand…

Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To address these biases, ensemble forecasts are post-processed…

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a…

We present a method for comparing point forecasts in a region of interest, such as the tails or centre of a variable's range. This method cannot be hedged, in contrast to conditionally selecting events to evaluate and then using a scoring…

Standard selection criteria for forecasting models focus on information that is calculated for each series independently, disregarding the general tendencies and performances of the candidate models. In this paper, we propose a new way to…

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to…

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…

Long-range ensemble forecasts are typically verified as anomalies with respect to a lead-time dependent climatological mean to remove the influence of systematic biases. However, common methods for calculating anomalies result in…

The problem of combining individual forecasters to produce a forecaster with improved performance is considered. The connections between probability elicitation and classification are used to pose the combining forecaster problem as that of…

Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…

Proper scoring rules are used to assess the out-of-sample accuracy of probabilistic forecasts, with different scoring rules rewarding distinct aspects of forecast performance. Herein, we re-investigate the practice of using proper scoring…

When averages of different experimental determinations of the same quantity are computed, each with statistical and systematic error components, then frequently the statistical and systematic components of the combined error are quoted…

Survey sampling is concerned with the estimation of finite population parameters. In practice, survey data suffer from item nonresponse, which is commonly handled through imputation, i.e., replacing missing values with predicted values. As…

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy tail behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been…