相关论文: Estimating the prevalence of malicious extraterres…
Comparison of the total number of the radar astronomy transmissions with respect to that used for sending messages to extra-terrestrial civilizations reveals that the probability of detection of the radio signals to extraterrestrials (ETs)…
At this point in time, there is very little empirical evidence on the likelihood of a space-faring species originating in the biosphere of a habitable world. However, there is a tension between the expectation that such a probability is…
Although it might not be self-evident, it is in fact entirely possible to calculate the probability of detecting alien radio signals by understanding what types of extraterrestrial radio emissions can be expected and what properties these…
In a paper by Alberto Caballero, a methodology is stated for estimating the probability of an exoplanet alien civilization having malicious intentions toward the human civilization after being messaged by it and estimating the number of…
The possibility that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) could be hostile to humanity has been raised as a reason to avoid even trying to contact ETIs. However, there is a distinct shortage of analytical discussion about the risks of an…
Are we alone? It is a compelling question that human beings have confronted for centuries. The search for extraterrestrial life is a broad range of quests for finding simple forms of life up to intelligent beings in the Universe. The…
Humanity is at a critical juncture, marked by rapid technological advances and the pursuit of higher civilization stages on the Kardashev scale. This study explores humanity's potential progression toward Type I and Type II civilizations,…
The history of astronomical discovery shows that many of the most detectable phenomena, especially detection firsts, are not typical members of their broader class, but rather rare, extreme cases with disproportionately large observational…
Earth-like planets are expected to provide the greatest opportunity for the detection of life beyond the Solar System. However our planet cannot be considered a fair sample, especially if intelligent life exists elsewhere. Just as a…
The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has been conducted for over sixty years, yet no technosignatures have been identified. Previous studies have focused on stars in our galaxy, with few searches in the extragalactic…
It is unclear how frequently life and intelligence arise on planets. I consider a Bayesian prior for the probability P(ETI) that intelligence evolves at a suitable site, with weight distributed evenly over ln(1 - ln P(ETI)). This log log…
It has been speculated that technological civilizations evolve along an energy consumption scale first formulated by Kardashev, ranging from human-like civilizations that consume energy at a rate of $\sim 10^{19}$ erg s$^{-1}$ to…
We use a statistical model to investigate the detectability (defined by the requirement that they are in causal contact with us) of communicating civilizations within a volume of the universe surrounding our location. If the civilizations…
We present a model where some proportion of extraterrestrial civilizations expand uniformly over time to reach a cosmological scale. We then ask what humanity could infer if a sky survey were to find zero, one, or more such civilizations.…
The lack of evidence for the existence of extraterrestrial life, even the simplest forms of animal life, makes it is difficult to decide whether the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is more a high-risk, high-payoff endeavor…
If advanced civilizations appear in the universe with an ability and desire to expand, the entire universe can become saturated with life on a short timescale, even if such expanders appear rarely. Our presence in an apparently untouched…
The ease of interstellar rocket travel is an issue with implications for the long term fate of our own and other civilizations and for the much-debated number of technological civilizations in the Galaxy. We show that the physical barrier…
With more and more exoplanets being detected, it is paid closer attention to whether there are lives outside solar system. We try to obtain habitable zones and the probability distribution of terrestrial planets in habitable zones around…
We devise and exploit a data-driven, semi-empirical framework of galaxy formation and evolution, coupling it to recipes for planet formation from stellar and planetary science, to compute the cosmic planet formation rate, and the properties…
What is the chance we start a conversation with another civilization like our own? Our technological society produced signals that could be received by other extraterrestrial civilizations, within a sphere around us with a radius of $\sim…