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Testing for the conditional independence structure in data is a fundamental and critical task in statistics and machine learning, which finds natural applications in causal discovery - a highly relevant problem to many scientific…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-03 Bao Duong , Nu Hoang , Thin Nguyen

Filtered Poisson processes are often used as reference models for intermittent fluc- tuations in physical systems. Such a process is here extended by adding a noise term, either as a purely additive term to the process or as a dynamical…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2018-05-04 Audun Theodorsen , Odd Erik Garcia , Martin Rypdal

This paper studies theory and inference of an observation-driven model for time series of counts. It is assumed that the observations follow a Poisson distribution conditioned on an accompanying intensity process, which is equipped with a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-07-18 Chao Wang , Heng Liu , Jian-Feng Yao , Richard A. Davis , Wai Keung Li

High-dimensional self-exciting point processes have been widely used in many application areas to model discrete event data in which past and current events affect the likelihood of future events. In this paper, we are concerned with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-08 Daren Wang , Yi Yu , Rebecca Willett

We propose in this work an original estimator of the conditional intensity of a marker-dependent counting process, that is, a counting process with covariates. We use model selection methods and provide a non asymptotic bound for the risk…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-10-24 F. Comte , S. Gaïffas , A. Guilloux

The paper considers a Cox process where the stochastic intensity function for the Poisson data model is itself a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We show that it is possible to obtain the marginal data process, namely a non-homogeneous…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-17 Shuying Wang , Stephen G. Walker

Cascades of Poisson processes are probabilistic models for spatio-temporal phenomena in which (i) previous events may trigger subsequent events, and (ii) both the background and triggering processes are conditionally Poisson. Such phenomena…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-07-14 Chris. J. Oates

Constraint-based causal discovery methods require a large number of conditional independence (CI) tests, which severely limits their practical applicability due to high computational complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to design an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Shunyu Zhao , Yanfeng Yang , Shuai Li , Kenji Fukumizu

We introduce and study an alternative form of the chaotic expansion for counting processes using the Poisson imbedding representation; we name this alternative form \textit{pseudo-chaotic expansion}. As an application, we prove that the…

概率论 · 数学 2022-09-07 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac

The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2020-08-06 Benjamin Avanzi , Greg Taylor , Bernard Wong , Alan Xian

We present the Additive Poisson Process (APP), a novel framework that can model the higher-order interaction effects of the intensity functions in stochastic processes using lower dimensional projections. Our model combines the techniques…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-17 Simon Luo , Feng Zhou , Lamiae Azizi , Mahito Sugiyama

Intensity estimation for Poisson processes is a classical problem and has been extensively studied over the past few decades. Practical observations, however, often contain compositional noise, i.e. a nonlinear shift along the time axis,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-09-25 Glenna Schluck , Wei Wu , Anuj Srivastava

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

This paper explores the Achievable Information Rate (AIR) of a diffusive Molecular Communication (MC) channel featuring a fully absorbing receiver that counts the absorbed particles during symbol time intervals (STIs) and resets the counter…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2023-08-08 Fardad Vakilipoor , Luca Barletta , Stefano Bregni , Maurizio Magarini

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intensity of a Poisson process $N$ by using thresholding rules. In this paper, the intensity, defined as the derivative of the mean measure of $N$ with respect to $ndx$ where $n$ is a fixed…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-01-22 Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Vincent Rivoirard

In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…

概率论 · 数学 2023-02-27 Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…

Entropy governs molecular self-assembly, phase transitions, and material stability, yet remains challenging to quantify and directly control in molecular systems. Here, we demonstrate that the computable information density (CID), a data…

统计力学 · 物理学 2026-02-27 Ashley Z. Guo , Kaelyn Chang , Nicholas J. Corrente

The mutual information (MI) of Poisson-type channels has been linked to a filtering problem since the 70s, but its evaluation for specific continuous-time, discrete-state systems remains a demanding task. As an advantage, Markov renewal…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2024-06-18 Maximilian Gehri , Nicolai Engelmann , Heinz Koeppl

By considering special sampling of discrete scale invariant (DSI) processes we provide a sequence which is in correspondence to multi-dimensional self-similar process. By imposing Markov property we show that the covariance functions of…

概率论 · 数学 2014-02-11 N. Modarresi , S. Rezakhah
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