相关论文: Bayesian Information Criterion for Event-based Mul…

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular generative model, but one in which conditional inference can be challenging. If the decomposition into query and evidence variables is fixed, conditional VAEs provide an attractive solution. To…

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve…

The growing use of model-selection principles in ecology for statistical inference is underpinned by information criteria (IC) and cross-validation (CV) techniques. Although IC techniques, such as Akaike's Information Criterion, have been…

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

In this paper, I develop a formula for estimating Bayes factors directly from minimal summary statistics produced in repeated measures analysis of variance designs. The formula, which requires knowing only the $F$-statistic, the number of…

Assume that observations are generated from an infinite-order autoregressive [AR($\infty$)] process. Shibata [Ann. Statist. 8 (1980) 147--164] considered the problem of choosing a finite-order AR model, allowing the order to become infinite…

We propose Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction (BHIP) reframing Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) through the lens of Hierarchical Bayes. We leverage the hierarchical structure to explicitly test invariance of causal mechanisms under…

Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is a measure of the quality of a statistical model for a given set of data. We can determine the best statistical model for a particular data set by the minimization of the AIC. Since we need to evaluate…

Recurrent event data are common in clinical studies when participants are followed longitudinally, and are often subject to a terminal event. With the increasing popularity of large pragmatic trials with a heterogeneous source population,…

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are often used to model migration and are increasingly used to simulate individual migrant decision-making and unfolding events through a sequence of heuristic if-then rules. However, ABMs lack the methods to embed…

In data-driven optimization, the sample performance of the obtained decision typically incurs an optimistic bias against the true performance, a phenomenon commonly known as the Optimizer's Curse and intimately related to overfitting in…

The reporting delay in data breach incidents poses a formidable challenge for Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) studies, complicating reserve estimation for actuarial professionals. This work presents a novel Bayesian nowcasting model…

In the field of quality of health care measurement, one approach to assessing patient sickness at admission involves a logistic regression of mortality within 30 days of admission on a fairly large number of sickness indicators (on the…

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

We introduce a class of Bayesian matrix dynamic factor models that accommodates time-varying volatility, outliers, and cross-sectional correlation in the idiosyncratic components. For model comparison, we employ an importance-sampling…

Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical…

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…

In recent years, the field of machine learning has made phenomenal progress in the pursuit of simulating real-world data generation processes. One notable example of such success is the variational autoencoder (VAE). In this work, with a…

Understanding the dynamics of functional brain connectivity patterns using noninvasive neuroimaging techniques is an important focus in human neuroscience. Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and Granger causality analysis (GCA) have been…