相关论文: Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks for A…

The proliferation of large-scale and structurally complex data has spurred the integration of machine learning methods into statistical modeling. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), a foundational class of models for time-dependent data, can…

Autoregressive and recurrent networks have achieved remarkable progress across various fields, from weather forecasting to molecular generation and Large Language Models. Despite their strong predictive capabilities, these models lack a…

In this paper, we introduce ProNet, an novel deep learning approach designed for multi-horizon time series forecasting, adaptively blending autoregressive (AR) and non-autoregressive (NAR) strategies. Our method involves dividing the…

This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or…

Learning temporal patterns from multivariate longitudinal data is challenging especially in cases when data is sporadic, as often seen in, e.g., healthcare applications where the data can suffer from irregularity and asynchronicity as the…

Sparse deep learning has become a popular technique for improving the performance of deep neural networks in areas such as uncertainty quantification, variable selection, and large-scale network compression. However, most existing research…

Real-world time series data exhibit non-stationary behavior, regime shifts, and temporally varying noise (heteroscedastic) that degrade the robustness of standard regression models. We introduce the Variability-Aware Recursive Neural…

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these…

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having…

A time series is a sequence of observations taken sequentially in time. The autoregressive integrated moving average is a class of the model more used for times series data. However, this class of model has two critical limitations. It fits…

Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a…

A regularized artificial neural network (RANN) is proposed for interval-valued data prediction. The ANN model is selected due to its powerful capability in fitting linear and nonlinear functions. To meet mathematical coherence requirement…

Time series refer to a series of data points indexed in time order, which can be found in various fields, e.g., transportation, healthcare, and finance. Accurate time series forecasting can enhance optimization planning and decision-making…

Optimal decision-making in social settings is often based on forecasts from time series (TS) data. Recently, several approaches using deep neural networks (DNNs) such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been introduced for TS…

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have become an integral part of modeling and forecasting frameworks in areas like natural language processing and high-dimensional dynamical systems such as turbulent fluid flows. To improve the accuracy of…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are more suitable for learning non-linear dependencies in dynamical systems from observed time series data. In practice all the external variables driving such systems are not known a priori, especially in…

Long-term time series forecasting plays an important role in various real-world scenarios. Recent deep learning methods for long-term series forecasting tend to capture the intricate patterns of time series by decomposition-based or…

The paper presents a novel deep learning approach, which extracts latent information from trained Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and derives concise representations that are analyzed in an effective, unified way for prediction purposes. It is…

We introduce a multimodal deep learning framework, Prescriptive Neural Networks (PNNs), that combines ideas from optimization and machine learning, and is, to the best of our knowledge, the first prescriptive method to handle multimodal…

Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time…