相关论文: Logical coherence in Bayesian simultaneous three-w…

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

I propose a general quantum hypothesis testing theory that enables one to test hypotheses about any aspect of a physical system, including its dynamics, based on a series of observations. For example, the hypotheses can be about the…

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing in the situation when the first hypothesis is simple and the second one is local one-sided composite. We describe the choice of the thresholds and the power functions of the Score Function test,…

Observations of single bunch beam-beam coherent modes during dedicated experiments in the LHC are presented. Their role in standard operation for physics is discussed and, in particular, candidates of beam-beam coherent mode driven unstable…

An increasing number of scientific experiments support the view of perception as Bayesian inference, which is rooted in Helmholtz's view of perception as unconscious inference. Recent study of logic presents a view of logical reasoning as…

Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike commonly reported p-values for standard null…

The burst search in LIGO relies on the coincident detection of transient signals in multiple interferometers. As only minimal assumptions are made about the event waveform or duration, the analysis pipeline requires loose coincidence in…

We study the merging and the testing of opinions in the context of a prediction model. In the absence of incentive problems, opinions can be tested and rejected, regardless of whether or not data produces consensus among Bayesian agents. In…

We propose three test criteria each of which is appropriate for testing, respectively, the equivalence hypotheses of symmetry, of homogeneity, and of independence, with multivariate data. All quantities have the common feature of involving…

As large language models (LLMs) are increasing integrated into fact-checking pipelines, formal logic is often proposed as a rigorous means by which to mitigate bias, errors and hallucinations in these models' outputs. For example, some…

While large pretrained language models (PLMs) demonstrate incredible fluency and performance on many natural language tasks, recent work has shown that well-performing PLMs are very sensitive to what prompts are feed into them. Even when…

The paper concerns inference in the ill-conditioned functional response model, which is a part of functional data analysis. In this regression model, the functional response is modeled using several independent scalar variables. To verify…

We introduce equivalence testing procedures for linear regression analyses. Such tests can be very useful for confirming the lack of a meaningful association between a continuous outcome and a continuous or binary predictor. Specifically,…

This paper studies the problem of testing whether a system of linear equality and inequality constraints admits a solution when the coefficients of that system may have to be estimated. We show that a wide range of inferential questions in…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are expected to be predictable and trustworthy to support reliable decision-making systems. Yet current LLMs often show inconsistencies in their judgments. In this work, we examine logical preference consistency…

Hypothesis testing and model choice are quintessential questions for statistical inference and while the Bayesian paradigm seems ideally suited for answering these questions, it faces difficulties of its own ranging from prior modelling to…

Hypothesis tests under order restrictions arise in a wide range of scientific applications. By exploiting inequality constraints, such tests can achieve substantial gains in power and interpretability. However, these gains come at a cost:…

Bayesian predictive synthesis is useful in synthesizing multiple predictive distributions coherently. However, the proof for the fundamental equation of the synthesized predictive density has been missing. In this technical report, we…

Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…