相关论文: A Bayesian Deep Learning Technique for Multi-Step …

A probabilistic reconstruction using machine-learning of the decay kinematics of top-quark pairs produced in high-energy proton-proton collisions is presented. A deep neural network whose core consists of a Bidirectional Long Short-Term…

Multilevel models (MLMs) are a central building block of the Bayesian workflow. They enable joint, interpretable modeling of data across hierarchical levels and provide a fully probabilistic quantification of uncertainty. Despite their…

We consider the problem of power demand forecasting in residential micro-grids. Several approaches using ARMA models, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks that perform one-step ahead predictions have been proposed in the…

The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

Forecasting meteorological variables is challenging due to the complexity of their processes, requiring advanced models for accuracy. Accurate precipitation forecasts are vital for society. Reliable predictions help communities mitigate…

Reliable wind turbine power prediction is imperative to the planning, scheduling and control of wind energy farms for stable power production. In recent years Machine Learning (ML) methods have been successfully applied in a wide range of…

Extreme learning machine (ELM) as a simple and rapid neural network has been shown its good performance in various areas. Different from the general single hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN), the input weights and biases in…

Accurate forecasts of distributed solar generation are necessary to reduce negative impacts resulting from the increased uptake of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, the high variability of solar generation over short…

The impracticality of posterior sampling has prevented the widespread adoption of spike-and-slab priors in high-dimensional applications. To alleviate the computational burden, optimization strategies have been proposed that quickly find…

In this paper, a nonlinear symbolic regression technique using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) is applied for a data-driven modelling between the dependent and the independent variables. The…

This paper addresses the pressing need for an accurate solar energy prediction model, which is crucial for efficient grid integration. We explore the influence of the Air Quality Index and weather features on solar energy generation,…

Accurate forecasts of photovoltaic power generation (PVPG) are essential to optimize operations between energy supply and demand. Recently, the propagation of sensors and smart meters has produced an enormous volume of data, which supports…

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

We investigate the optimal structure of dynamic regression models used in multivariate time series prediction and propose a scheme to form the lagged variable structure called Backward-in-Time Selection (BTS) that takes into account…

The rapid deployment of renewable generations such as photovoltaic (PV) generations brings great challenges to the resiliency of existing power systems. Because PV generations are volatile and typically invisible to the power system…

Time series forecasting is a key tool in financial markets, helping to predict asset prices and guide investment decisions. In highly volatile markets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), forecasting becomes more…

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications…

Climate change is one of the most concerning issues of this century. Emission from electric power generation is a crucial factor that drives the concern to the next level. Renewable energy sources are widespread and available globally,…