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While many areas of machine learning have benefited from the increasing availability of large and varied datasets, the benefit to causal inference has been limited given the strong assumptions needed to ensure identifiability of causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-02 Wenshuo Guo , Serena Wang , Peng Ding , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

From personalised medicine to targeted advertising, it is an inherent task to provide a sequence of decisions with historical covariates and outcome data. This requires understanding of both the dynamics and heterogeneity of treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-22 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

We propose a new estimation method for heterogeneous causal effects which utilizes a regression discontinuity (RD) design for multiple datasets with different thresholds. The standard RD design is frequently used in applied researches, but…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-05-14 Takayuki Toda , Ayako Wakano , Takahiro Hoshino

The practical utility of causality in decision-making is widespread and brought about by the intertwining of causal discovery and causal inference. Nevertheless, a notable gap exists in the evaluation of causal discovery methods, where…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Chris Chinenye Emezue , Alexandre Drouin , Tristan Deleu , Stefan Bauer , Yoshua Bengio

How can we understand classification decisions made by deep neural networks? Many existing explainability methods rely solely on correlations and fail to account for confounding, which may result in potentially misleading explanations. To…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-02 Yash Goyal , Amir Feder , Uri Shalit , Been Kim

Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-13 Shu Li , Peter Bühlmann

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Ashwin Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-02-04 Mark J. van der Laan , Ivana Malenica

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-27 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

Boundary discontinuity designs are used to learn about causal treatment effects along a continuous assignment boundary that splits units into control and treatment groups according to a bivariate location score. We analyze location-based…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-15 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Death among subjects is common in observational studies evaluating the causal effects of interventions among geriatric or severely ill patients. High mortality rates complicate the comparison of the prevalence of adverse events (AEs)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Anthony Sisti , Andrew Zullo , Roee Gutman

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-18 Zilong Wang , Turgay Ayer , Shihao Yang

Randomized Controlled Trials are one of the pillars of science; nevertheless, they rely on hand-crafted hypotheses and expensive analysis. Such constraints prevent causal effect estimation at scale, potentially anchoring on popular yet…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-07 Tommaso Mencattini , Riccardo Cadei , Francesco Locatello

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Recent advances in deep learning (DL) have prompted the development of high-performing early warning score (EWS) systems, predicting clinical deteriorations such as acute kidney injury, acute myocardial infarction, or circulatory failure.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-05 Yuxiao Cheng , Xinxin Song , Ziqian Wang , Qin Zhong , Kunlun He , Jinli Suo

Causal effects may vary among individuals and can even be of opposite signs. When significant effect heterogeneity exists, the population average causal effect might be uninformative for an individual. Due to the fundamental problem of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-12 Richard Post , Zhuozhao Zhan , Edwin van den Heuvel

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the estimation of treatment effects (TEs). Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational autoencoder (VAE), motivated by the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

In the social and health sciences, researchers often make causal inferences using sensitive variables. These researchers, as well as the data holders themselves, may be ethically and perhaps legally obligated to protect the confidentiality…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-28 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens