相关论文: A safe Hosmer-Lemeshow test

A non parametric method based on the empirical likelihood is proposed for detecting the change in the coefficients of high-dimensional linear model where the number of model variables may increase as the sample size increases. This amounts…

We propose a new approach to formally describing the requirement for statistical inference and checking whether a program uses the statistical method appropriately. Specifically, we define belief Hoare logic (BHL) for formalizing and…

We propose a new testing procedure of heteroskedasticity in high-dimensional linear regression, where the number of covariates can be larger than the sample size. Our testing procedure is based on residuals of the Lasso. We demonstrate that…

P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis testing theory. As a consequence, significant results are much more common than they are supposed to be when the null hypothesis is in fact true. In this paper, we build…

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and…

We study a large-scale one-sided multiple testing problem in which test statistics follow normal distributions with unit variance, and the goal is to identify signals with positive mean effects. A conventional approach is to compute…

Calibration of mean estimates for predictions is a crucial property in many applications, particularly in the fields of financial and actuarial decision-making. In this paper, we first review classical approaches for validating…

In the recent literature on machine learning and decision making, calibration has emerged as a desirable and widely-studied statistical property of the outputs of binary prediction models. However, the algorithmic aspects of measuring model…

Binary classification is highly used in credit scoring in the estimation of probability of default. The validation of such predictive models is based both on rank ability, and also on calibration (i.e. how accurately the probabilities…

Reliable long-horizon value prediction is difficult in offline reinforcement learning because fitted value methods combine bootstrapping, function approximation, and distribution shift, while standard guarantees often require Bellman…

In science, the most widespread statistical quantities are perhaps $p$-values. A typical advice is to reject the null hypothesis $H_0$ if the corresponding p-value is sufficiently small (usually smaller than 0.05). Many criticisms regarding…

In large-scale hypothesis testing, computing exact $p$-values or $e$-values is often resource-intensive, creating a need for budget-aware inferential methods. We propose a general framework for active hypothesis testing that leverages…

The e-value is gaining traction as a robust alternative to p-values and Bayes factors for quantifying statistical evidence. e-values are a promising method for adaptive clinical trials due to their anytime-validity: e-values ensure type I…

A scientist tests a continuous stream of hypotheses over time in the course of her investigation -- she does not test a predetermined, fixed number of hypotheses. The scientist wishes to make as many discoveries as possible while ensuring…

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes…

A stylized feature of high-dimensional data is that many variables have heavy tails, and robust statistical inference is critical for valid large-scale statistical inference. Yet, the existing developments such as Winsorization,…

We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the e-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new study…

We introduce equivalence testing procedures for linear regression analyses. Such tests can be very useful for confirming the lack of a meaningful association between a continuous outcome and a continuous or binary predictor. Specifically,…

In this paper, we introduce an innovative testing procedure for assessing individual hypotheses in high-dimensional linear regression models with measurement errors. This method remains robust even when either the X-model or Y-model is…

Deep neural networks often produce miscalibrated probability estimates, leading to overconfident predictions. A common approach for calibration is fitting a post-hoc calibration map on unseen validation data that transforms predicted…