相关论文: Dynamic Spatiotemporal ARCH Models

We analyze daily Airbnb service-fee shares across eleven settlement currencies, a compositional series that shows bursts of volatility after shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard Dirichlet time series models assume constant…

In this manuscript, we analytically and numerically study statistical properties of an heteroskedastic process based on the celebrated ARCH generator of random variables whose variance is defined by a memory of $q_{m}$-exponencial, form…

This paper investigates a partially linear spatial autoregressive panel data model that incorporates fixed effects, constant and time-varying regression coefficients, and a time-varying spatial lag coefficient. A two-stage least squares…

The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' concerning financial series, and is now…

Conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are commonly used to capture spatial correlation in areal unit data, and are typically specified as a prior distribution for a set of random effects, as part of a hierarchical Bayesian model. The…

The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process…

This paper presents the generalized spatial autoregression (GSAR) model, a significant advance in spatial econometrics for non-normal response variables belonging to the exponential family. The GSAR model extends the logistic SAR, probit…

This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…

A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

Conditional auto-regressive (CAR) distributions are widely used to induce spatial dependence in the geographic analysis of areal data. These distributions establish multivariate dependence networks by defining conditional relationships…

We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…

I present an approach for modeling areal spatial covariance by considering the stationary distribution of a spatio-temporal Markov random walk. In the areal data case, this stationary distribution corresponds to an intrinsic simultaneous…

A family of continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic processes, generalizing the $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ process of Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller [J. Appl. Probab. 41 (2004) 601--622], is…

We analyze a varying-coefficient dynamic spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying…

We propose a parsimonious spatiotemporal model for time series data on a spatial grid. Our model is capable of dealing with high-dimensional time series data that may be collected at hundreds of locations and capturing the spatial…

Accurate modeling of spatial dependence is pivotal in analyzing spatial data, influencing parameter estimation and predictions. The spatial structure of the data significantly impacts valid statistical inference. Existing models for areal…