相关论文: Hydrological post-processing for predicting extrem…

Big data analytics has opened new avenues in economic research, but the challenge of analyzing datasets with tens of millions of observations is substantial. Conventional econometric methods based on extreme estimators require large amounts…

Gaussian process regression in its most simplified form assumes normal homoscedastic noise and utilizes analytically tractable mean and covariance functions of predictive posterior distribution using Gaussian conditioning. Its…

Process-based hydrologic models are invaluable tools for understanding the terrestrial water cycle and addressing modern water resources problems. However, many hydrologic models are computationally expensive and, depending on the…

This paper introduces new empirical process tools for analyzing a broad class of statistical learning models under heavy-tailed noise and complex function classes. Our primary contribution is the derivation of two Dudley-type maximal…

Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…

Deep Gaussian processes have recently been proposed as natural objects to fit, similarly to deep neural networks, possibly complex features present in modern data samples, such as compositional structures. Adopting a Bayesian nonparametric…

Accurate precipitation forecasting is a vital challenge of societal importance. Though data-driven approaches have emerged as a widely used solution, solely relying on data-driven approaches has limitations in modeling the underlying…

We consider trawl processes, which are stationary and infinitely divisible stochastic processes and can describe a wide range of statistical properties, such as heavy tails and long memory. In this paper, we develop the first…

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to improve flood forecasting we focus on daily flood events along Germany's Wupper River in 2023 our approach combines classical machine learning techniques with QML…

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

In the multivariate setting, estimates of extremal risk measures are important in many contexts, such as environmental planning and structural engineering. In this paper, we propose new estimation methods for extremal bivariate return…

In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

In meta-analysis with continuous outcomes, the use of effect sizes based on the means is the most common. It is often found, however, that only the quantile summary measures are reported in some studies, and in certain scenarios, a…

This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…

Extreme events pose significant risks and are challenging to predict. Assessing climate hazards requires placing quantitative constraints on geophysical fields under observable but fluctuating conditions. We propose a framework for…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its…

Ensembles of forecasts are typically employed to account for the forecast uncertainties inherent in predictions of future weather states. However, biases and dispersion errors often present in forecast ensembles require statistical…

Datasets in the fields of climate and environment are often very large and irregularly spaced. To model such datasets, the widely used Gaussian process models in spatial statis- tics face tremendous challenges due to the prohibitive…