相关论文: Model Comparison and Calibration Assessment: User …

While machine learning models have achieved unprecedented success in real-world applications, they might make biased/unfair decisions for specific demographic groups and hence result in discriminative outcomes. Although research efforts…

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…

The charge prediction task is to determine appropriate charges for a given case, which is helpful for legal assistant systems where the user input is fact description. We argue that relevant law articles play an important role in this task,…

Aircraft performance models play a key role in airline operations, especially in planning a fuel-efficient flight. In practice, manufacturers provide guidelines which are slightly modified throughout the aircraft life cycle via the tuning…

Calibration is a pivotal aspect in predictive modeling, as it ensures that the predictions closely correspond with what we observe empirically. The contemporary calibration framework, however, is predominantly focused on prediction models…

Stochastic simulation aims to compute output performance for complex models that lack analytical tractability. To ensure accurate prediction, the model needs to be calibrated and validated against real data. Conventional methods approach…

Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…

This paper addresses significant obstacles that arise from the widespread use of machine learning models in the insurance industry, with a specific focus on promoting fairness. The initial challenge lies in effectively leveraging unlabeled…

Rapid development of advanced modelling techniques gives an opportunity to develop tools that are more and more accurate. However as usually, everything comes with a price and in this case, the price to pay is to loose interpretability of a…

In many real-world applications, a model provider provides probabilistic forecasts to downstream decision-makers who use them to make decisions under diverse payoff objectives. The provider may have access to multiple predictive models,…

The ability to collect and store ever more massive databases has been accompanied by the need to process them efficiently. In many cases, most observations have the same behavior, while a probable small proportion of these observations are…

We provide methods to validate and compare sensor outputs, or inference algorithms applied to sensor data, by adapting statistical scoring rules. The reported output should either be in the form of a prediction interval or of a parameter…

Similarity functions measure how comparable pairs of elements are, and play a key role in a wide variety of applications, e.g., notions of Individual Fairness abiding by the seminal paradigm of Dwork et al., as well as Clustering problems.…

This review aims to draw attention to two issues of concern when we set out to make machine learning work in the chemical and materials domain, i.e., statistical loss function metrics for the validation and benchmarking of data-derived…

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for advertisement ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods…

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a…

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

Conformal prediction is a useful and versatile alternative to model calibration in machine learning classification. It replaces single-class prediction with prediction sets, guaranteeing that the \textit{a priori} probability of the…

In an increasing number of applications designers have access to multiple computer models which typically have different levels of fidelity and cost. Traditionally, designers calibrate these models one at a time against some high-fidelity…

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…