相关论文: Exploring the effects of activity-preserving time …
We combine a pedestrian dynamics model with a contact tracing method to simulate the initial spreading of a highly infectious airborne disease in a confined environment. We focus on a medium size population (up to 1000 people) with a small…
Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…
We study the epidemic spreading process following contact dynamics with heavy-tailed waiting time distributions. We show both analytically and numerically that the temporal heterogeneity of contact dynamics can significantly suppress the…
We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalisation of the activity-driven modelling framework. In this model of time-varying networks each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The…
While several non-pharmacological measures have been implemented for a few months in an effort to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, the disease remains a danger in a number of counties as restrictions…
The global public health landscape is perpetually challenged by the looming threat of infectious diseases. Central to addressing this concern is the imperative to prevent and manage disease transmission during pandemics, particularly in…
An understanding of the disease spreading phenomenon based on a mathematical model is extremely needed for the implication of the correct policy measures to contain the disease propagation. Here, we report a new model namely the Ising-SIR…
Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…
In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading.…
Interactions in time-varying complex systems are often very heterogeneous at the topological level (who interacts with whom) and at the temporal level (when interactions occur and how often). While it is known that temporal heterogeneities…
Given the growth of urbanization and emerging pandemic threats, more sophisticated models are required to understand disease propagation and investigate the impacts of intervention strategies across various city types. We introduce a fully…
Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…
Diseases and other contagion phenomena in nature and society can interact asymmetrically, such that one can benefit from the other, which in turn impairs the first, in analogy with predator-prey systems. Here, we consider two models for…
Human contact networks are constituted by a multitude of individuals and pairwise contacts among them. However, the dynamic nature, which generates the evolution of human contact networks, of contact patterns is not known yet. Here, we…
In this study, we develop the mathematical model to understand the coupling between the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases and the mobility dynamics through urban transportation systems. We first describe the mobility dynamics of the…
Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time,…
When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…