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Transformer-based models have recently become dominant in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), yet the variations in their architecture, such as encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only designs, raise a crucial question: What…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-18 Lefei Shen , Mouxiang Chen , Han Fu , Xiaoxue Ren , Xiaoyun Joy Wang , Jianling Sun , Zhuo Li , Chenghao Liu

Multivariate time series analysis has long been one of the key research topics in the field of artificial intelligence. However, analyzing complex time series data remains a challenging and unresolved problem due to its high dimensionality,…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-03-03 Hao Si , Xiao Wang , Fan Zhang , Xiaoya Zhou , Dengdi Sun , Wanli Lyu , Qingquan Yang , Jin Tang

Traditionally, weather predictions are performed with the help of large complex models of physics, which utilize different atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. These conditions are often unstable because of perturbations of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 A H M Jakaria , Md Mosharaf Hossain , Mohammad Ashiqur Rahman

High-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS) are often characterized by nonlinear trends and high spatial dimensions. Such data poses unique challenges for modeling and forecasting due to the nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and high…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-28 Haixu Wang , Jiguo Cao

A common forecasting setting in real world applications considers a set of possibly heterogeneous time series of the same domain. Due to different properties of each time series such as length, obtaining forecasts for each individual time…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-31 Lukas Neubauer , Peter Filzmoser

RNN-based methods have faced challenges in the Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) domain when dealing with excessively long look-back windows and forecast horizons. Consequently, the dominance in this domain has shifted towards…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-23 Shengsheng Lin , Weiwei Lin , Wentai Wu , Feiyu Zhao , Ruichao Mo , Haotong Zhang

Unsupervised fault detection in multivariate time series plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of complex systems. Traditional methods often assume that normal data follow a single Gaussian distribution and identify anomalies…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-01 Hong Liu , Xiuxiu Qiu , Yiming Shi , Miao Xu , Zelin Zang , Zhen Lei

As environments evolve, temporal distribution shifts can degrade time series forecasting performance. A straightforward solution is to adapt to nonstationary changes while preserving stationary dependencies. Hence, some methods disentangle…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Zijian Li , Ruichu Cai , Zhenhui Yang , Haiqin Huang , Guangyi Chen , Yifan Shen , Zhengming Chen , Xiangchen Song , Kun Zhang

Recently, the superiority of Transformer for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks has been challenged, particularly since recent work has shown that simple models can outperform numerous Transformer-based approaches. This suggests…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Shengsheng Lin , Weiwei Lin , Wentai Wu , Songbo Wang , Yongxiang Wang

Benefiting from high capacity for capturing complex temporal patterns, deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced time series forecasting (TSF). However, deep models tend to suffer from severe overfitting due to the inherent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-30 Yisong Fu , Zezhi Shao , Chengqing Yu , Yujie Li , Zhulin An , Qi Wang , Yongjun Xu , Fei Wang

Multivariate time-series forecasting plays a crucial role in many real-world applications. It is a challenging problem as one needs to consider both intra-series temporal correlations and inter-series correlations simultaneously. Recently,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-16 Defu Cao , Yujing Wang , Juanyong Duan , Ce Zhang , Xia Zhu , Conguri Huang , Yunhai Tong , Bixiong Xu , Jing Bai , Jie Tong , Qi Zhang

Multivariate time-series forecasting holds immense value across diverse applications, requiring methods to effectively capture complex temporal and inter-variable dynamics. A key challenge lies in uncovering the intrinsic patterns that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-12 Liang Yu , Lai Tu , Xiang Bai

Accurate household electricity short-term load forecasting (STLF) is key to future and sustainable energy systems. While various studies have analyzed statistical, machine learning, or deep learning approaches for household electricity…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-01-09 Marcel Meyer , David Zapata , Sascha Kaltenpoth , Oliver Müller

In Internet of things (IoT), data is continuously recorded from different data sources and devices can suffer faults in their embedded electronics, thus leading to a high-dimensional data sets and concept drift events. Therefore, methods…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-22 Hugo Vinicius Bitencourt , Frederico Gadelha Guimarães

Time series forecasting has traditionally been formulated as a model-centric, static, and single-pass prediction problem that maps historical observations to future values. While this paradigm has driven substantial progress, it proves…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-12 Mingyue Cheng , Xiaoyu Tao , Qi Liu , Ze Guo , Enhong Chen

In recent years, deep learning techniques have outperformed traditional models in many machine learning tasks. Deep neural networks have successfully been applied to address time series forecasting problems, which is a very important topic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-09 Pedro Lara-Benítez , Manuel Carranza-García , José C. Riquelme

Forecasting the behaviour of complex dynamical systems such as interconnected sensor networks characterized by high-dimensional multivariate time series(MTS) is of paramount importance for making informed decisions and planning for the…

The attention mechanism has demonstrated remarkable potential in sequence modeling, exemplified by its successful application in natural language processing with models such as Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-26 Bowen Zhao , Huanlai Xing , Zhiwen Xiao , Jincheng Peng , Li Feng , Xinhan Wang , Rong Qu , Hui Li

Recurrent and convolutional neural networks are the most common architectures used for time series forecasting in deep learning literature. These networks use parameter sharing by repeating a set of fixed architectures with fixed parameters…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-30 Joel Janek Dabrowski , YiFan Zhang , Ashfaqur Rahman

Deep time series forecasting has emerged as a rapidly growing field in recent years. Despite the exponential growth of community interests, progress on standard benchmarks is often limited to marginal improvements. A common consensus of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-05 Yuxuan Wang , Haixu Wu , Yuezhou Ma , Yuchen Fang , Ziyi Zhang , Yong Liu , Shiyu Wang , Zhou Ye , Yang Xiang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long