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Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), a hierarchical composition of GP models, have successfully boosted the expressive power of their single-layer counterpart. However, it is impossible to perform exact inference in DGPs, which has motivated the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-27 Haibin Yu , Dapeng Liu , Yizhou Chen , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low , Patrick Jaillet

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

Individual causal inference (ICI) uses causal inference methods to understand and predict the effects of interventions on individuals, considering their specific characteristics / facts. It aims to estimate individual causal effect (ICE),…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-07-15 Daniel T. Chang

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been a powerful tool for node classification tasks in complex networks. However, their decision-making processes remain a black-box to users, making it challenging to understand the reasoning behind their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-12 Chirag Chhablani , Sarthak Jain , Akshay Channesh , Ian A. Kash , Sourav Medya

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-16 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

Post-nonlinear (PNL) causal models stand out as a versatile and adaptable framework for modeling intricate causal relationships. However, accurately capturing the invertibility constraint required in PNL models remains challenging in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-30 Nu Hoang , Bao Duong , Thin Nguyen

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

In this paper, we propose a score-based normalizing flow method called DAG-NF to learn dependencies of input observation data. Inspired by Grad-CAM in computer vision, we use jacobian matrix of output on input as causal relationships and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-08 Xiongren Chen

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-26 Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Petar Veličković , Kristian Kersting

Unlike classical causal inference, which often has an average causal effect of a treatment within a population as a target, in settings such as personalized medicine, the goal is to map a given unit's characteristics to a treatment tailored…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-09-13 Ilya Shpitser , Sourjya Sarkar

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are able to model complicated distributions p(y) with strong inter-dimensional correlations and high multimodality by transforming a simple base density p(z) through an invertible neural network under the change of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-14 Christina Winkler , Daniel Worrall , Emiel Hoogeboom , Max Welling

Human Pose Estimation (HPE) is increasingly important for applications like virtual reality and motion analysis, yet current methods struggle with balancing accuracy, computational efficiency, and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ).…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Shipeng Liu , Ziliang Xiong , Bastian Wandt , Per-Erik Forssén

Counterfactual explanations offer an intuitive way to interpret graph neural networks (GNNs) by identifying minimal changes that alter a model's prediction, thereby answering "what must differ for a different outcome?". In this work, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-09 Yu Zhang , Sean Bin Yang , Arijit Khan , Cuneyt Gurcan Akcora

Causal effect estimation (CEE) provides a crucial tool for predicting the unobserved counterfactual outcome for an entity. As CEE relaxes the requirement for ``perfect'' counterfactual samples (e.g., patients with identical attributes and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-19 Hechuan Wen , Tong Chen , Guanhua Ye , Li Kheng Chai , Shazia Sadiq , Hongzhi Yin

Time-series forecasting increasingly demands not only accurate observational predictions but also causal forecasting under interventional and counterfactual queries in multivariate systems. We present DoFlow, a flow-based generative model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Dongze Wu , Feng Qiu , Yao Xie

The use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) methods to estimate the causal effect of treatments from observational studies is widespread in econometrics, medicine and social sciences. Although these studies often involve sensitive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-11-04 Si Kai Lee , Luigi Gresele , Mijung Park , Krikamol Muandet

Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-08-10 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

Counterfactual Explanation (CE) techniques have garnered attention as a means to provide insights to the users engaging with AI systems. While extensively researched in domains such as medical imaging and autonomous vehicles, Graph…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-12 Mario Alfonso Prado-Romero , Bardh Prenkaj , Giovanni Stilo

Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data. Yet, in practice, data are often decentralized across multiple sites, making centralization infeasible due to privacy, logistical, or legal constraints. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-04 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse