相关论文: COVID-19 mortality prediction: A case study for \.…

The second wave of Covid-19 that started in mid-February 2021 in Mumbai is now subsiding. Increasingly the focus amongst the policy makers and general public is on the potential third wave. Due to uncertainties regarding emergence of new…

Using a discretised version of our recently-developed SIR-type mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19, we construct a design of governmental policies for the eradication of the disease in the province of DKI Jakarta, Indonesia,…

Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: for immediate planning; for balancing the life years saved against the life years lost due to the consequences of management; and…

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…

We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…

Information of 1.6 million patients identified as SARS-CoV-2 positive in Mexico is used to understand the relationship between comorbidities, symptoms, hospitalizations and deaths due to the COVID-19 disease. Using the presence or absence…

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…

The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the lives of people globally. In the past year many researchers have proposed different models and approaches to explore in what ways the spread of the disease could be mitigated. One of the models that…

Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological…

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

The outbreak of Covid-19 led the world to an unprecedent health and economical crisis. In an attempt to responde to this emergency researchers worldwide are intensively studying the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics. In this work, a SIRSi…

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…

In this paper, a generalized fractional-order SEIR model is proposed, denoted by SEIQRP model, which has a basic guiding significance for the prediction of the possible outbreak of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and other insect diseases…

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…

We construct an SIR-type model for COVID-19, incorporating as a parameter the susceptible individuals' cautiousness level. We determine the model's basic reproduction number, study the stability of the equilibria analytically, and perform a…

For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…

The experience of Singapur and South Korea makes it clear that under certain circumstances massive testing is an effective way for containing the advance of the COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a modified SEIR model which takes into…

In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February…