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In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-25 Fabian Krüger , Sebastian Lerch , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-15 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Recent approaches to training algorithm selectors in the black-box optimisation domain have advocated for the use of training data that is algorithm-centric in order to encapsulate information about how an algorithm performs on an instance,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-22 Quentin Renau , Emma Hart

Benchmarking estimation and its risk evaluation is a practically important issue in small area estimation. While Bayesian methods have been widely adopted in small area estimation, existing benchmarking approaches are often ad-hoc, such as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-22 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Genya Kobayashi , Yuki Kawakubo

As observations and student models become complex, educational assessments that exploit advances in technology and cognitive psychology can outstrip familiar testing models and analytic methods. Within the Portal conceptual framework for…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-30 Robert Mislevy , Russell Almond , Duanli Yan , Linda S. Steinberg

We consider a problem of clustering a sequence of multinomial observations by way of a model selection criterion. We propose a form of a penalty term for the model selection procedure. Our approach subsumes both the conventional AIC and BIC…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-08-17 Nam H. Lee , Runze Tang , Carey E. Priebe , Michael Rosen

Imbalanced data poses a significant challenge in classification as model performance is affected by insufficient learning from minority classes. Balancing methods are often used to address this problem. However, such techniques can lead to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-18 Adrian Stando , Mustafa Cavus , Przemysław Biecek

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-05-13 Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox , Carlos Guestrin

Astronomers are often confronted with funky populations and distributions of objects: brighter objects are more likely to be detected; targets are selected based on colour cuts; imperfect classification yields impure samples. Failing to…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2017-06-21 Samuel R. Hinton , Alex Kim , Tamara M. Davis

When a subgroup is identified from the data, it must be evaluated in a replicable way. The usual in-sample approach, which evaluates the post-hoc identified subgroup as predefined, might suffer from selection bias. This issue of in-sample…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Shuoxun Xu , Xinzhou Guo

While the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are powerful tools for model selection in linear regression, they are built on different prior assumptions and thereby apply to different data generation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-12-15 MB de Kock , HC Eggers

Machine Learning models have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, ie. the manipulation of data by a attacker to defeat a defender's classifier at test time. We present a novel probabilistic definition of adversarial examples…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-09 Martin Gubri

In this paper we propose a method to obtain global explanations for trained black-box classifiers by sampling their decision function to learn alternative interpretable models. The envisaged approach provides a unified solution to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-26 Irene Unceta , Jordi Nin , Oriol Pujol

Automotive insurers increasingly have access to telematic information via black-box recorders installed in the insured vehicle, and wish to identify undesirable behaviour which may signify increased risk or uninsured activities. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-23 Mark McLeod , Bernardo Perez-Orozco , Nika Lee , Davide Zilli

The efficacy of family-based approaches to mixture model-based clustering and classification depends on the selection of parsimonious models. Current wisdom suggests the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for mixture model selection.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-11-12 Sakyajit Bhattacharya , Paul D. McNicholas

Malware is becoming increasingly complex and widespread, making it essential to develop more effective and timely detection methods. Traditional static analysis often fails to defend against modern threats that employ code obfuscation,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-19 Wadduwage Shanika Perera , Haodi Jiang

The extensive damage caused by malware requires anti-malware systems to be constantly improved to prevent new threats. The current trend in malware detection is to employ machine learning models to aid in the classification process. We…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2023-01-31 Marcus Carpenter , Chunbo Luo

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

The use of Machine Learning has become a significant part of malware detection efforts due to the influx of new malware, an ever changing threat landscape, and the ability of Machine Learning methods to discover meaningful distinctions…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2021-06-16 John Boutsikas , Maksim E. Eren , Charles Varga , Edward Raff , Cynthia Matuszek , Charles Nicholas

Adversarial attack perturbs an image with an imperceptible noise, leading to incorrect model prediction. Recently, a few works showed inherent bias associated with such attack (robustness bias), where certain subgroups in a dataset (e.g.…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-05-06 Gaurav Kumar Nayak , Ruchit Rawal , Rohit Lal , Himanshu Patil , Anirban Chakraborty