相关论文: Bayesian Neural Hawkes Process for Event Uncertain…

Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking about managing, comparing and combining inferences from sets of models. Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) advances conceptual and…

Existing deep learning approaches for travel mode choice modeling fail to inform modelers about their prediction uncertainty. Even when facing scenarios that are out of the distribution of training data, which implies high prediction…

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness of uncertainty is a major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist,…

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…

Hawkes process models are used in settings where past events increase the likelihood of future events occurring. Many applications record events as counts on a regular grid, yet discrete-time Hawkes models remain comparatively underused and…

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

There has been increasing interest in modeling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian hierarchical deep neural networks model for modeling and prediction of survival data.…

Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are making significant progress in many research areas where decision-making needs to be accompanied by uncertainty estimation. Being able to quantify uncertainty while making decisions is essential for…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Electronic Health Records (EHR) can be represented as temporal sequences that record the events (medical visits) from patients. Neural temporal point process (NTPP) has achieved great success in modeling event sequences that occur in…

Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single…

Many prediction tasks contain uncertainty. In some cases, uncertainty is inherent in the task itself. In future prediction, for example, many distinct outcomes are equally valid. In other cases, uncertainty arises from the way data is…

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…