相关论文: Teaching Bayes' Rule using Mosaic Plots

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation `turtleback diagram' for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells. Adopting the set theoretic view of…

Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…

We present a method for incorporating a stochastic point of view into physics exercises of mathematics education. The core of our method is the randomization of some inputs, the system model used does not differ from what we would use in…

There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…

Traditional approaches to Bayes net structure learning typically assume little regularity in graph structure other than sparseness. However, in many cases, we expect more systematicity: variables in real-world systems often group into…

In the process of building (structural learning) a probabilistic graphical model from a set of observed data, the directional, cyclic dependencies between the random variables of the model are often found. Existing graphical models such as…

Rule sets are often used in Machine Learning (ML) as a way to communicate the model logic in settings where transparency and intelligibility are necessary. Rule sets are typically presented as a text-based list of logical statements…

Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models widely employed to understand dependencies in high dimensional data, and even to facilitate causal discovery. Learning the underlying network structure, which is encoded as a directed…

Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection…

Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of a…

Recently several researchers have investigated techniques for using data to learn Bayesian networks containing compact representations for the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) stored at each node. The majority of this work has…

Bayesian networks provide an elegant formalism for representing and reasoning about uncertainty using probability theory. Theyare a probabilistic extension of propositional logic and, hence, inherit some of the limitations of propositional…

We present a method for learning the parameters of a Bayesian network with prior knowledge about the signs of influences between variables. Our method accommodates not just the standard signs, but provides for context-specific signs as…

Despite growing interest in probabilistic modeling approaches and availability of learning tools, people with no or less statistical background feel hesitant to use them. There is need for tools for communicating probabilistic models to…

Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such…

Teaching how to derive minimax decision rules can be challenging because of the lack of examples that are simple enough to be used in the classroom. Motivated by this challenge, we provide a new example that illustrates the use of standard…

Bayesian probability theory is used as a framework to develop a formalism for the scientific method based on principles of inductive reasoning. The formalism allows for precise definitions of the key concepts in theories of physics and also…

Children can use the statistical regularities of their environment to learn word meanings, a mechanism known as cross-situational learning. We take a computational approach to investigate how the information present during each observation…

Gaussian graphical models typically assume a homogeneous structure across all subjects, which is often restrictive in applications. In this article, we propose a weighted pseudo-likelihood approach for graphical modeling which allows…