相关论文: Bayesian inference of the climbing grade scale

Staged tree models enhance Bayesian networks by incorporating context-specific dependencies through a stage-based structure. In this study, we present a new framework for estimating staged trees using hierarchical clustering on the…

A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…

The problem of learning Markov equivalence classes of Bayesian network structures may be solved by searching for the maximum of a scoring metric in a space of these classes. This paper deals with the definition and analysis of one such…

The Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference scheme is a popular algorithm used to compute the mean-field approximation of a probability distribution of interest. We analyze its random scan version, under log-concavity assumptions on the…

The Brown-Resnick max-stable process has proven to be well-suited for modeling extremes of complex environmental processes, but in many applications its likelihood function is intractable and inference must be based on a composite…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

As machine learning becomes more prominent there is a growing demand to perform several inference tasks in parallel. Running a dedicated model for each task is computationally expensive and therefore there is a great interest in multi-task…

The advent of accessible ancient DNA technology now allows the direct ascertainment of allele frequencies in ancestral populations, thereby enabling the use of allele frequency time series to detect and estimate natural selection. Such…

A popular approach to semi-supervised learning proceeds by endowing the input data with a graph structure in order to extract geometric information and incorporate it into a Bayesian framework. We introduce new theory that gives appropriate…

We demonstrate that gradient-based data valuation produces curriculum orderings that significantly outperform metadata-based heuristics for training game-theoretic motion planners. Specifically, we apply TracIn gradient-similarity scoring…

The reliable measurement of confidence in classifiers' predictions is very important for many applications and is, therefore, an important part of classifier design. Yet, although deep learning has received tremendous attention in recent…

Bayesian additive regression trees have seen increased interest in recent years due to their ability to combine machine learning techniques with principled uncertainty quantification. The Bayesian backfitting algorithm used to fit BART…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Exponential random graph models are a class of widely used exponential family models for social networks. The topological structure of an observed network is modelled by the relative prevalence of a set of local sub-graph configurations…

Given functional data from a survival process with time-dependent covariates, we derive a smooth convex representation for its nonparametric log-likelihood functional and obtain its functional gradient. From this, we devise a generic…

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a natural framework to effectively integrate data and borrow information across groups. In this paper, we address problems related to density estimation and identifying clusters across related groups, by…

Gradient descent is slow to converge for ill-conditioned problems and non-convex problems. An important technique for acceleration is step-size adaptation. The first part of this paper contains a detailed review of step-size adaptation…

Although animal locations gained via GPS, etc. are typically observed on a discrete time scale, movement models formulated in continuous time are preferable in order to avoid the struggles experienced in discrete time when faced with…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in Bayesian computations. However, they need to access the full data set in order to evaluate the posterior density at every step of the algorithm. This results in a great…

Markov chain Monte Calro methods (MCMC) are commonly used in Bayesian statistics. In the last twenty years, many results have been established for the calculation of the exact convergence rate of MCMC methods. We introduce another rate of…