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This study introduces a computationally efficient algorithm, delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC), designed to improve posterior simulation in quasi-Bayesian inference. Quasi-Bayesian methods, which do not require fully…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-02-16 Masahiro Tanaka

We introduce a novel stochastic version of the non-reversible, rejection-free Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS), a Markov process whose sample trajectories are piecewise linear. The algorithm is based on simulating first arrival times in a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-06-15 Ari Pakman , Dar Gilboa , David Carlson , Liam Paninski

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

We show how to construct the implied copula process of response values from a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with prior on the leaf node variances. This copula process, defined on the covariate space, can be paired with any…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-14 Jan Martin Wenkel , Michael Stanley Smith , Nadja Klein

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-03 Johan Alenlöv , Arnaud Doucet , Fredrik Lindsten

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-25 C. M. Pooley , S. C. Bishop , A. Doeschl-Wilson , G. Marion

The Pseudo-Marginal (PM) algorithm is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used to sample from a target distribution when its density is inaccessible, but can be estimated with a non-negative unbiased estimator. Its performance…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Sarra Abaoubida , Mylène Bédard , Florian Maire

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-04 Henry Chai , Jean-Francois Ton , Roman Garnett , Michael A. Osborne

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

We introduce a new path integral Monte Carlo method for investigating nonadiabatic systems in thermal equilibrium and demonstrate an approach to reducing stochastic error. We derive a general path integral expression for the partition…

化学物理 · 物理学 2019-07-11 Neil Raymond , Dmitri Iouchtchenko , Pierre-Nicholas Roy , Marcel Nooijen

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

Most Markov chain Monte Carlo methods operate in discrete time and are reversible with respect to the target probability. Nevertheless, it is now understood that the use of non-reversible Markov chains can be beneficial in many contexts. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-23 Chris Sherlock , Alexandre H. Thiery

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful and commonly used family of numerical methods for sampling from complex probability distributions. As applications of these methods increase in size and complexity, the need for efficient…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-01-31 Colin Cotter , Simon Cotter , Paul Russell

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have existed for a long time and the field is well-explored. The purpose of MCMC methods is to approximate a distribution through repeated sampling; most MCMC algorithms exhibit asymptotically optimal…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-07-13 Fareed Sheriff

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-15 Deborshee Sen , Matthias Sachs , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras