相关论文: Unpacking uncertainty in the modelling process for…

The Paris agreement is the first-ever universally accepted and legally binding agreement on global climate change. It is a bridge between today's and climate-neutrality policies and strategies before the end of the century. Critical to this…

We suggest a new methodology for designing robust energy systems. For this, we investigate so-called near-optimal solutions to energy system optimisation models; solutions whose objective values deviate only marginally from the optimum.…

Material flow analyses (MFAs) provide insight into supply chain level opportunities for resource efficiency. MFAs can be represented as networks with nodes that represent materials, processes, sectors or locations. MFA network structure…

The parameters of the nuclear energy density have to be adjusted to experimental data. As a result they carry certain uncertainty which then propagates to calculated values of observables. In the present work we quantify the statistical…

Increasing pressures on the environment are generating an ever-increasing need to manage animal and plant populations sustainably, and to protect and rebuild endangered populations. Effective management requires reliable mathematical…

[Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different…

This paper studies binary linear programming problems in the presence of uncertainties that may cause solution values to change during implementation. This type of uncertainty, termed implementation uncertainty, is modeled explicitly…

Renewable energy is essential for energy security and global warming mitigation. However, power generation from renewable energy sources is uncertain due to volatile weather conditions and complex equipment operations. To improve…

To ensure agreement between theoretical calculations and experimental data, parameters to selected nuclear physics models, are perturbed, and fine-tuned in nuclear data evaluations. This approach assumes that the chosen set of models…

Model selection often aims to choose a single model, assuming that the form of the model is correct. However, there may be multiple possible underlying explanatory patterns in a set of predictors that could explain a response. Model…

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

We study risk-aware linear policy approximations for the optimal operation of an energy system with stochastic wind power, storage, and limited fuel. The resulting problem is a sequential decision-making problem with rolling forecasts. In…

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…

Climate models are limited by heavy computational costs, often producing outputs at coarse spatial resolutions, while many climate change impact studies require finer scales. Statistical downscaling bridges this gap, and we adapt the…

Information-theoretic principles for learning and acting have been proposed to solve particular classes of Markov Decision Problems. Mathematically, such approaches are governed by a variational free energy principle and allow solving MDP…

Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…

A crucial design decision for any robot learning pipeline is the choice of policy representation: what type of model should be used to generate the next set of robot actions? Owing to the inherent multi-modal nature of many robotic tasks,…

As the world is transitioning towards highly renewable energy systems, advanced tools are needed to analyze such complex networks. Energy system design is, however, challenged by real-world objective functions consisting of a blurry mix of…

Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…