相关论文: Frequentist-Bayes Hybrid Covariance Estimationfor …

Likelihood profiling is an efficient and powerful frequentist approach for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and practical identifiablity analysis. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be easily applied for stochastic models…

In most practical applications such as recommendation systems, display advertising, and so forth, the collected data often contains missing values and those missing values are generally missing-not-at-random, which deteriorates the…

This paper proposes a safety controller for control-affine nonlinear systems with unmodelled dynamics and disturbances to improve closed-loop robustness. Uncertainty estimation-based control barrier functions (CBFs) are utilized to ensure…

Standard maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations are not robust to perturbations in the continuous-in-time data. In this paper, we give a rather elementary explanation of this…

We address high dimensional covariance estimation for elliptical distributed samples, which are also known as spherically invariant random vectors (SIRV) or compound-Gaussian processes. Specifically we consider shrinkage methods that are…

Parameter estimation and inference from complex survey samples typically focuses on global model parameters whose estimators have asymptotic properties, such as from fixed effects regression models. The central challenge is to both mitigate…

We introduce a novel Bayesian phase estimation technique based on adaptive grid refinement method. This method automatically chooses the number particles needed for accurate phase estimation using grid refinement and cell merging strategies…

Normalizing flows model a complex target distribution in terms of a bijective transform operating on a simple base distribution. As such, they enable tractable computation of a number of important statistical quantities, particularly…

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are widely used to cluster observations. However, one major drawback of the approach is that the estimated partition often presents unbalanced clusters' frequencies with only a few dominating clusters…

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…

A major problem in numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices from a small number of samples. Maximum likelihood estimators cannot provide reliable estimates when the overall dimension is…

Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional…

Bayesian methods, distributionally robust optimization methods, and regularization methods are three pillars of trustworthy machine learning combating distributional uncertainty, e.g., the uncertainty of an empirical distribution compared…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

This paper presents a distributed estimator for a deterministic parametric physical field sensed by a homogeneous sensor network and develops a new transformed expression for the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) on the variance of distributed…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

Neural networks are powerful function approximators with tremendous potential in learning complex distributions. However, they are prone to overfitting on spurious patterns. Bayesian inference provides a principled way to regularize neural…