相关论文: Is MC Dropout Bayesian?

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

We consider geothermal inverse problems and uncertainty quantification from a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to make standard, `out-of-the-box' Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling more feasible for complex simulation models by…

Deep neural networks have amply demonstrated their prowess but estimating the reliability of their predictions remains challenging. Deep Ensembles are widely considered as being one of the best methods for generating uncertainty estimates…

Leaving posterior sensitivity concerns aside, non-identifiability of the parameters does not raise a difficulty for Bayesian inference as far as the posterior is proper, but multi-modality or flat regions of the posterior induced by the…

Over decades, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely studied, with a typical application being the quantification of posterior uncertainties in Bayesian system identification of structural dynamic models. To address the…

Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be useful for decision-making or discovering causal relationships. However, traditional methods often fail in modern applications, which exhibit a larger number of observed variables than data…

Scaling Bayesian optimization to high dimensions is challenging task as the global optimization of high-dimensional acquisition function can be expensive and often infeasible. Existing methods depend either on limited active variables or…

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…

Bayesian inference in biological modeling commonly relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a multidimensional and non-Gaussian posterior distribution that is not analytically tractable. Here, we present the implementation of a…

Recently, artificial intelligence technologies and algorithms have become a major focus for advancements in treatment planning for radiation therapy. As these are starting to become incorporated into the clinical workflow, a major concern…

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become…

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling outcomes from…

The field of learning analytics needs to adopt a more rigorous approach for predictive model evaluation that matches the complex practice of model-building. In this work, we present a procedure to statistically test hypotheses about model…

Mean-field Variational Bayes (MFVB) is an approximate Bayesian posterior inference technique that is increasingly popular due to its fast runtimes on large-scale datasets. However, even when MFVB provides accurate posterior means for…

Many models of interest in the natural and social sciences have no closed-form likelihood function, which means that they cannot be treated using the usual techniques of statistical inference. In the case where such models can be…

In M-open problems where no true model can be conceptualized, it is common to back off from modeling and merely seek good prediction. Even in M-complete problems, taking a predictive approach can be very useful. Stacking is a model…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Bayesian low-rank matrix factorization techniques have become an essential tool for relational data analysis and matrix completion. A standard approach is to assign zero-mean Gaussian priors on the columns or rows of factor matrices to…