相关论文: Online Aggregation of Probability Forecasts with C…

In this work, we aim to create a completely online algorithmic framework for prediction with expert advice that is translation-free and scale-free of the expert losses. Our goal is to create a generalized algorithm that is suitable for use…

In this work, we propose a generalized product of experts (gPoE) framework for combining the predictions of multiple probabilistic models. We identify four desirable properties that are important for scalability, expressiveness and…

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is known to model human decisions well, with substantial empirical evidence supporting this claim. CPT works by distorting probabilities and is more general than the classic expected utility and coherent…

We present a scheme by which a probabilistic forecasting system whose predictions have poor probabilistic calibration may be recalibrated by incorporating past performance information to produce a new forecasting system that is demonstrably…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an important tool in machine learning and statistics with applications ranging from social and natural science through engineering. They constitute a powerful kernelized non-parametric method with…

This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the…

Probabilistic predictions are probability distributions over the set of possible outcomes. Such predictions quantify the uncertainty in the outcome, making them essential for effective decision making. By combining multiple predictions, the…

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is subject of increasing interest, following the demand for proper quantification of prediction uncertainty, to support the operation in complex power markets with increasing share of…

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km…

We propose a method for combining probabilistic outputs of classifiers to make a single consensus class prediction when no further information about the individual classifiers is available, beyond that they have been trained for the same…

When dealing with time series with complex non-stationarities, low retrospective regret on individual realizations is a more appropriate goal than low prospective risk in expectation. Online learning algorithms provide powerful guarantees…

When multiple forecasts are available for a probability distribution, forecast combining enables a pragmatic synthesis of the information to extract the wisdom of the crowd. The linear opinion pool has been widely used, whereby the…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

We study the prediction with expert advice setting, where the aim is to produce a decision by combining the decisions generated by a set of experts, e.g., independently running algorithms. We achieve the min-max optimal dynamic regret under…

The games of prediction with expert advice are considered in this paper. We present some modification of Kalai and Vempala algorithm of following the perturbed leader for the case of unrestrictedly large one-step gains. We show that in…

This paper studies the use of conformal prediction (CP), an emerging probabilistic forecasting method, for day-ahead photovoltaic power predictions to enhance participation in electricity markets. First, machine learning models are used to…

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids presents significant challenges due to their intrinsic stochasticity and uncertainty, necessitating the development of new techniques for reliable and efficient forecasting.…

For over a century, extrapolation methods have provided a powerful tool to improve the convergence order of a numerical method. However, these tools are not well-suited to modern computer codes, where multiple continua are discretised and…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

This work proposes a conformal approach for energy storage arbitrage to control the downside risk arising from imperfect price forecasts. Energy storage arbitrage relies solely on predictions of future market prices, while inaccurate price…