相关论文: Parametric Modeling Approach to COVID-19 Pandemic …

Insurance loss data are usually in the form of left-truncation and right-censoring due to deductibles and policy limits respectively. This paper investigates the model uncertainty and selection procedure when various parametric models are…

Originating from a system theory and an input/output point of view, I introduce a new class of generalized distributions. A parametric nonlinear transformation converts a random variable $X$ into a so-called Lambert $W$ random variable $Y$,…

We develop two novel approaches for constructing skewed and bimodal flexible distributions that can effectively generalize classical symmetric distributions. We illustrate the application of introduced techniques by extending normal,…

Catastrophic loss data are known to be heavy-tailed. Practitioners then need models that are able to capture both tail and modal parts of claim data. To this purpose, a new parametric family of loss distributions is proposed as a gamma…

The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…

In this work, we study the pandemic course in the United States by considering national and state levels data. We propose and compare multiple time-series prediction techniques which incorporate auxiliary variables. One type of approach is…

The need to forecast COVID-19 related variables continues to be pressing as the epidemic unfolds. Different efforts have been made, with compartmental models in epidemiology and statistical models such as AutoRegressive Integrated Moving…

We consider a log-linear model for survival data, where both the location and scale parameters depend on covariates and the baseline hazard function is completely unspecified. This model provides the flexibility needed to capture many…

In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…

In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…

The class of $\alpha$-stable distributions with a wide range of applications in economics, telecommunications, biology, applied, and theoretical physics. This is due to the fact that it possesses both the skewness and heavy tails. Since…

We propose a new family of error distributions for model-based quantile regression, which is constructed through a structured mixture of normal distributions. The construction enables fixing specific percentiles of the distribution while,…

This paper considers the problem of estimating a power-law degree distribution of an undirected network using sampled data. Although power-law degree distributions are ubiquitous in nature, the widely used parametric methods for estimating…

This work focuses on the development of a new family of decision-making algorithms for adaptation and learning, which are specifically tailored to decision problems and are constructed by building up on first principles from decision…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

This paper introduces link functions for transforming one probability distribution to another such that the Kullback-Leibler and R\'enyi divergences between the two distributions are symmetric. Two general classes of link models are…

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

In this study, we address three important challenges related to disease transmissions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, (a) providing an early warning to likely exposed individuals, (b) identifying individuals who are asymptomatic, and…

Given a random sample from a distribution with density function that depends on an unknown parameter $\theta$, we are interested in accurately estimating the true parametric density function at a future observation from the same…