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This paper considers identification and estimation of causal effect parameters from participating in a binary treatment in a difference in differences (DID) setup when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on observed…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-06-25 Carolina Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Stroud Payne , Hugo Sant'Anna Rodrigues

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

In evidence synthesis, effect modifiers are typically described as variables that induce treatment effect heterogeneity at the individual level, through treatment-covariate interactions in an outcome model parametrized at such level. As…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-07 Antonio Remiro-Azócar

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that explicitly targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Towards the same ends, studying the causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Angela Ting , Antonio R. Linero

This paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of the effects of actions in the presence of unmeasured variables. We show that the identification of causal effect between a singleton variable X and a set of variables Y can be accomplished…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-02-21 David Galles , Judea Pearl

Data-driven societal event forecasting methods exploit relevant historical information to predict future events. These methods rely on historical labeled data and cannot accurately predict events when data are limited or of poor quality.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-13 Songgaojun Deng , Huzefa Rangwala , Yue Ning

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-26 Jiajing Zheng , Jiaxi Wu , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Causal inference in observational studies is notoriously difficult, due to the fact that the experimenter is not in charge of the treatment assignment mechanism. Many potential con- founding factors (PCFs) exist in such a scenario, and if…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-09-15 Vadim von Brzeski , Matt Taddy , David Draper

This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions from a combination of nonexperimental data and causal assumptions encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph in which some variables are presumed to be unobserved. We provide…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-07-19 Jin Tian

Unobserved confounding is a key challenge when estimating causal effects from a treatment on an outcome in scientific applications. In this work, we assume that we observe a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-13 Silvan Vollmer , Niklas Pfister , Sebastian Weichwald

The classical notion of causal effect identifiability is defined in terms of treatment and outcome variables. In this paper, we consider the identifiability of state-based causal effects: how an intervention on a particular state of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Yizuo Chen , Adnan Darwiche

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui

Using deep latent variable models in causal inference has attracted considerable interest recently, but an essential open question is their ability to yield consistent causal estimates. While they have demonstrated promising results and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-25 Severi Rissanen , Pekka Marttinen

Establishing causal relationships between actions and outcomes is fundamental for accountable multi-agent decision-making. However, interpreting and quantifying agents' contributions to such relationships pose significant challenges. These…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-06-11 Stelios Triantafyllou , Aleksa Sukovic , Debmalya Mandal , Goran Radanovic

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

In this position and problem pitch paper, we offer a solution to the reference class problem in causal inference. We apply the Reconcile algorithm for model multiplicity in machine learning to reconcile heterogeneous effects in causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-12 Audrey Chang , Emily Diana , Alexander Williams Tolbert

In the causal learning setting, we wish to learn cause-and-effect relationships between variables such that we can correctly infer the effect of an intervention. While the difference between a cyclic structure and an acyclic structure may…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-27 Katie Everett , Ian Fischer

We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…