相关论文: Multipatch ZIKV Model and Simulations

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…

In this paper we study some deterministic mathematical models that seek to explain the expansion of zika virus, as a viral epidemic, using published data for Brazil. SIR type models are proposed and validated using the epidemic data found,…

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that…

Classical disease models use a mass action term as the interaction between infected and susceptible people in separate patches. We derive the equations when this interaction is a migration of people between patches. The results model what…

We consider a multi-species reaction-diffusion system that arises in epidemiology to describe the spread of several strains, or variants, of a disease in a population. Our model is a natural spatial, multi-species, extension of the…

In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…

Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and…

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…

We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…

The patterns of human mobility play a key role in the spreading of infectious diseases and thus represent a key ingredient of epidemic modeling and forecasting. Unfortunately, as the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted, for the…

Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…

Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

The metapopulation framework is adopted in a wide array of disciplines to describe systems of well separated yet connected subpopulations. The subgroups or patches are often represented as nodes in a network whose links represent the…

We study the dynamics of an epidemic-like model for the spread of a rumor on a small-world network. It has been shown that this model exhibits a transition between regimes of localization and propagation at a finite value of the network…

We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…