相关论文: Forecasting and its Beneficiaries

We study the problem of controlling the interference created to an external observer by a communication processes. We model the interference in terms of its type (empirical distribution), and we analyze the consequences of placing…

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand…

Negotiation is one of the crucial abilities in human communication, and there has been a resurgent research interest in negotiation dialogue systems recently, which goal is to empower intelligent agents with such ability that can…

We offer a parsimonious model to investigate how strategic wind producers sell energy under stochastic production constraints, where the extent of heterogeneity of wind energy availability varies according to wind farm locations. The main…

Prediction markets are powerful tools to elicit and aggregate beliefs from strategic agents. However, in current prediction markets, agents may exhaust the social welfare by competing to be the first to update the market. We initiate the…

This chapter reviews the purpose and use of models from the field of complex systems and, in particular, the implications of trying to use models to understand or make decisions within complex situations, such as policy makers usually face.…

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly used to inform the allocations of goods and interventions in the public sphere. In these domains, predictions serve as a means to an end. They provide stakeholders with insights into likelihood of…

Goals for planning problems are typically conceived of as subsets of the state space. However, for many practical planning problems in robotics, we expect the robot to predict goals, e.g. from noisy sensors or by generalizing learned models…

Participatory citizen platforms are innovative solutions to digitally better engage citizens in policy-making and deliberative democracy in general. Although these platforms have been used also in an engineering context, thus far, there is…

The work of astronomers is getting more complex and advanced as the progress of computer development occurs. With improved computing capabilities and increased data flow, more sophisticated software is required in order to interpret, and…

Most organizations adjust their statistical forecasts (e.g. on sales) manually. Forecasting Support Systems (FSS) enable the related process of automated forecast generation and manual adjustments. As the FSS user interface connects user…

We report on a course project in which students submit weekly probabilistic forecasts of two weather variables and one financial variable. This real-time format allows students to engage in practical forecasting, which requires a diverse…

Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can…

We consider a social choice setting with agents that are partitioned into disjoint groups, and have metric preferences over a set of alternatives. Our goal is to choose a single alternative aiming to optimize various objectives that are…

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…

Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…

As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…

This document details the planning phase of a Systematic Mapping Study. Our goal is to identify and to understand the benefits that the software engineering community has reported on the application of the different reuse strategies in…

We present a model of a forecaster who must predict the future value of a variable that depends on an exogenous state and on the intervention of a policy-maker. We investigate the incentives of the forecaster to acquire costly private…