相关论文: Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Ne…
In this study, we propose a novel approach of nowcasting and forecasting the macroeconomic status of a country using deep learning techniques. We focus particularly on the US economy but the methodology can be applied also to other…
Quantitative models are an important decision-making factor for policy makers and investors. Predicting an economic recession with high accuracy and reliability would be very beneficial for the society. This paper assesses machine learning…
The quest for accurate economic forecasting has traditionally been dominated by econometric models, which most of the times rely on the assumptions of linear relationships and stationarity in of the data. However, the complex and often…
This paper uses standard and penalized logistic regression models to predict the Great Recession and the Covid-19 recession in the US in real time. It examines the predictability of various macroeconomic and financial indicators with…
Time series prediction with neural networks has been the focus of much research in the past few decades. Given the recent deep learning revolution, there has been much attention in using deep learning models for time series prediction, and…
In this paper, I explored how a range of regression and machine learning techniques can be applied to monthly U.S. unemployment data to produce timely forecasts. I compared seven models: Linear Regression, SGDRegressor, Random Forest,…
This paper applies a recurrent neural network, the LSTM, to forecast inflation. This is an appealing model for time series as it processes each time step sequentially and explicitly learns dynamic dependencies. The paper also explores the…
Based on evidence gathered from a newly built large macroeconomic data set for the UK, labeled UK-MD and comparable to similar datasets for the US and Canada, it seems the most promising avenue for forecasting during the pandemic is to…
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…
We study the dynamic portfolio selection of an investor who uses deep learning methods to forecast stock market excess returns. In a two-asset allocation problem, deep neural networks -- both feedforward and long short-term memory (LSTM)…
Time series data is a prevalent form of data found in various fields. It consists of a series of measurements taken over time. Forecasting is a crucial application of time series models, where future values are predicted based on historical…
There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for…
We introduce a novel application of Support Vector Machines (SVM), an important Machine Learning algorithm, to determine the beginning and end of recessions in real time. Nowcasting, "forecasting" a condition about the present time because…
Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of financial variables and replicating as far as possible a…
Understanding the business cycle is crucial for building economic stability, guiding business planning, and informing investment decisions. The business cycle refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity…
This paper presents an interpretable review of various machine learning and deep learning models to predict the maintenance of aircraft engine to avoid any kind of disaster. One of the advantages of the strategy is that it can work with…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
We study the impacts of business cycles on machine learning (ML) predictions. Using the S&P 500 index, we find that ML models perform worse during most recessions, and the inclusion of recession history or the risk-free rate does not…
The US stock market experienced instability following the recession (2007-2009). COVID-19 poses a significant challenge to US stock traders and investors. Traders and investors should keep up with the stock market. This is to mitigate risks…
Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency has been one of the most important digital coins and the first decentralized digital currency. Deep neural networks, on the other hand, has shown promising results recently; however, we require huge amount of…