相关论文: A Linear Dynamical Perspective on Epidemiology: In…

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…

Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…

Human interactions and mobility shape epidemic dynamics by facilitating disease outbreaks and their spatial spread across regions. Traditional models often isolate commuting and random mobility as separate behaviors, focusing either on…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

The ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic is affecting every facet of human lives (e.g., public health, education, economy, transportation, and the environment). This novel pandemic and citywide implemented lockdown measures are affecting virus…

The study of human mobility patterns is a crucially important research field for its impact on several socio-economic aspects and, in particular, the measure of regularity patters of human mobility can provide a across-the-board view of…

In this paper, we build a mechanistic system to understand the relation between a reduction in human mobility and Covid-19 spread dynamics within New York City. To this end, we propose a multivariate compartmental model that jointly models…

Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…

The constrained outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China has recently been regarded as a successful example of fighting this highly contagious virus. Both the short period (in about three months) of transmission and the sub-exponential…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…

The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…

Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns at different geographic scales is crucial for assessing the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as stay-at-home orders) during the COVID-19…

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swept across more than 180 countries and territories since late January 2020. As a worldwide emergency response, governments have implemented various measures and policies, such as…

To manage the COVID-19 epidemic effectively, decision-makers in public health need accurate forecasts of case numbers. A potential near real-time predictor of future case numbers is human mobility; however, research on the predictive power…

Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…

The COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of social distancing policies have rapidly changed people's visiting patterns, as reflected in mobility data that tracks mobility traffic using location trackers on cell phones. However, the…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Thus, the inclusion of human movements into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes and to…

Nowadays, social media is the main tool in our new lives. The outbreak news and all related obtained from social media, and mob events affect the of spread these news fast. Recently, epidemiological models to study disease spread and…