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Traditional instrumental variable (IV) methods often struggle with weak or invalid instruments and rely heavily on external data. We introduce a Synthetic Instrumental Variable (SIV) approach that constructs valid instruments using only…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Ratbek Dzhumashev , Ainura Tursunalieva

This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-15 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Baohong Li , Ziyang Xiao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Qing Han , Kun Kuang

Studies investigating the causal effects of spatially varying exposures on outcomes often rely on observational and spatially indexed data. A prevalent challenge is unmeasured spatial confounding, where an unobserved spatially varying…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Sophie M. Woodward , Mauricio Tec , Francesca Dominici

Imitation learning from demonstrations usually suffers from the confounding effects of unmeasured variables (i.e., unmeasured confounders) on the states and actions. If ignoring them, a biased estimation of the policy would be entailed. To…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-24 Yan Zeng , Shenglan Nie , Feng Xie , Libo Huang , Peng Wu , Zhi Geng

Instrumental variables (IV) estimation suffers selection bias when the analysis conditions on the treatment. Judea Pearl's early graphical definition of instrumental variables explicitly prohibited conditioning on the treatment.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-05-20 Felix Elwert , Elan Segarra

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular and powerful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, classical approaches rely on strong assumptions such as the $\textit{exclusion criterion}$, which…

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-06 Rui Wang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

Instrumental Variable (IV) provides a source of treatment randomization that is conditionally independent of the outcomes, responding to the challenges of counterfactual and confounding biases. In finance, IV construction typically relies…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2024-11-27 Ying Chen , Ziwei Xu , Kotaro Inoue , Ryutaro Ichise

The instrumental variables (IV) method is a method for making causal inferences about the effect of a treatment based on an observational study in which there are unmeasured confounding variables. The method requires a valid IV, a variable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-08-19 Dylan Small , Zhiqiang Tan , Scott Lorch , Alan Brookhart

Can instrumental variables be found from data? While instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to identify causal effect, testing their validity from observed data remains a challenge. This is because validity of an IV depends on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-05 Amit Sharma

Instrumental variables (IVs) provide a powerful strategy for identifying causal effects in the presence of unobservable confounders. Within the nonparametric setting (NPIV), recent methods have been based on nonlinear generalizations of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-12-24 Yuri Fonseca , Caio Peixoto , Yuri Saporito

An essential problem in causal inference is estimating causal effects from observational data. The problem becomes more challenging with the presence of unobserved confounders. When there are unobserved confounders, the commonly used…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-25 Ziqi Xu , Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Jixue Liu , Lin Liu , Kui Yu

We study counterfactual prediction under assignment bias and propose a mathematically grounded, information-theoretic approach that removes treatment-covariate dependence without adversarial training. Starting from a bound that links the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-28 Shiqin Tang , Rong Feng , Shuxin Zhuang , Youzhi Zhang , Hongzong Li

Inference for causal effects can benefit from the availability of an instrumental variable (IV) which, by definition, is associated with the given exposure, but not with the outcome of interest other than through a causal exposure effect.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-01-13 Stijn Vansteelandt , Jack Bowden , Manoochehr Babanezhad , Els Goetghebeur

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) are considered a promising recipe to deliver better policy interventions. One key ingredient in optimal ITR estimation problems is to estimate the average treatment effect conditional on a subject's…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-16 Hongming Pu , Bo Zhang

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is,…