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Data assimilation is used to optimally fit a classical epidemiology model to the Johns Hopkins data of the Covid-19 pandemic. The optimisation is based on the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. This is the only data available with…

For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…

Clinical trials of a vaccine during an epidemic face particular challenges, such as the pressure to identify an effective vaccine quickly to control the epidemic, and the effect that time-space-varying infection incidence has on the power…

A deterministic model with testing of infected individuals has been proposed to investigate the potential consequences of the impact of testing strategy. The model exhibits global dynamics concerning the disease-free and a unique endemic…

Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…

The present paper introduces a data-driven framework for describing the time-varying nature of an SIRD model in the context of COVID-19. By embedding a rolling regression in a mixed integer bilevel nonlinear programming problem, our aim is…

In identifying infected patients in a population, group testing is an effective method to reduce the number of tests and correct the test errors. In the group testing procedure, tests are performed on pools of specimens collected from…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

The pandemic of COVID-19 has imposed tremendous pressure on public health systems and social economic ecosystems over the past years. To alleviate its social impact, it is important to proactively track the prevalence of COVID-19 within…

Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…

COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…

Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2)…

A/B testing plays a central role in data-driven product development, guiding launch decisions for new features and designs. However, treatment effect estimates are often noisy due to short horizons, early stopping, and slowly accumulating…

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast amount of growth for statistical models and methods which characterize features of disease outbreaks. One class of models that came to light in this regard has been the use of self-exciting point…

This study investigated the performance, explainability, and robustness of deployed artificial intelligence (AI) models in predicting mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The first study of its kind, we found that Bayesian…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…

Epidemiological models are best suitable to model an epidemic if the spread pattern is stationary. To deal with non-stationary patterns and multiple waves of an epidemic, we develop a hybrid model encompassing epidemic modeling, particle…

COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our world in a timescale much shorter than what we can understand. Particularities of SARS-CoV-2, such as its persistence in surfaces and the lack of a curative treatment or vaccine against COVID-19, have…

Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…

Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, decision makers have relied on forecasting models to determine and implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). In building the forecasting models, continuously updated…