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A new matching method is proposed for the estimation of the average treatment effect of social policy interventions (e.g., training programs or health care measures). Given an outcome variable, a treatment and a set of pre-treatment…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Stefano Iacus , Giuseppe Porro

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

A key challenge in estimating causal effects from observational data is handling confounding and is commonly achieved through weighting methods that balance distribution of covariates between treatment and control groups. Weighting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-23 Simion De , Jared D. Huling

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is a commonly targeted statistical parameter for measuring the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. However, the CATE will fail to capture effects of treatments beyond differences…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-03 Jeffrey Näf , Junhyung Park , Herbert Susmann

Forest-based methods have recently gained in popularity for non-parametric treatment effect estimation. Building on this line of work, we introduce causal survival forests, which can be used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-01 Yifan Cui , Michael R. Kosorok , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Ruoqing Zhu

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

We are interested in the estimation of average treatment effects based on right-censored data of an observational study. We focus on causal inference of differences between t-year absolute event risks in a situation with competing risks. We…

In sequential causal inference, one estimates the causal net effect of treatment in treatment sequence on an outcome after last treatment in the presence of time-dependent covariates between treatments, improves the estimation by the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-11-18 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

Recursive decision trees are widely used to estimate heterogeneous causal treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. These methods are typically implemented using CART-type recursive partitioning and are often viewed as…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-19 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang

This article walks through how to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) with right-censored time-to-event outcomes using the function causal_survival_forest (Cui et al., 2023) in the R package grf (Athey et al., 2019,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-02-27 Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager

This paper presents a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units, motivated by challenges that arise in analyzing experiments on social networks. The framework integrates three components:…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-06-21 Peter M. Aronow , Cyrus Samii

Estimating a causal effect from observational data can be biased if we do not control for self-selection. This selection is based on confounding variables that affect the treatment assignment and the outcome. Propensity score methods aim to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-09-10 Daniel Jacob

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

Flexible machine learning tools are increasingly used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. This paper gives an accessible tutorial demonstrating the use of the causal forest algorithm, available in the R package grf. We start with a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Erik Sverdrup , Maria Petukhova , Stefan Wager

Estimators that weight observed outcomes to form effect estimates have a long tradition. Their outcome weights are widely used in established procedures, such as checking covariate balance, characterizing target populations, or detecting…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-13 Michael C. Knaus

Decision tree learning is increasingly being used for pointwise inference. Important applications include causal heterogenous treatment effects and dynamic policy decisions, as well as conditional quantile regression and design of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-08 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Peter M. Tian

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate group-level interventions and increasingly collect multiple outcomes capturing complementary dimensions of benefit and risk. Investigators often seek a single global summary of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-22 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li
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