中文
相关论文

相关论文: Historical Inertia: A Neglected but Powerful Basel…

200 篇论文

The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-03 Jiaming Ma , Siyuan Mu , Ruilin Tang , Haofeng Ma , Qihe Huang , Zhengyang Zhou , Pengkun Wang , Binwu Wang , Yang Wang

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown promising zero-shot generalization across diverse forecasting tasks. However, their robustness to continual adaptation remains underexplored. In this work, we investigate the extent to which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-03 Nouha Karaouli , Denis Coquenet , Elisa Fromont , Martial Mermillod , Marina Reyboz

Time series forecasting in specialized domains is often constrained by limited data availability, where conventional models typically require large-scale datasets to effectively capture underlying temporal dynamics. To tackle this few-shot…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-03 Haonan Shi , Dehua Shuai , Liming Wang , Xiyang Liu , Long Tian

Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-09-22 Uwe Hassler , Marc-Oliver Pohle

Deep learning has shown strong performance in time series forecasting tasks. However, issues such as missing values and anomalies in sequential data hinder its further development in prediction tasks. Previous research has primarily focused…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-17 Hua Wang , Jinghao Lu , Fan Zhang

Time series data appears in a variety of applications such as smart transportation and environmental monitoring. One of the fundamental problems for time series analysis is time series forecasting. Despite the success of recent deep time…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-09-28 Baoyu Jing , Si Zhang , Yada Zhu , Bin Peng , Kaiyu Guan , Andrew Margenot , Hanghang Tong

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of various models for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting (LMTF), many of which have shown promising results. Generally, the focus has been on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-28 Shiyi Qi , Zenglin Xu , Yiduo Li , Liangjian Wen , Qingsong Wen , Qifan Wang , Yuan Qi

Transformer-based architectures have achieved remarkable success in natural language processing and computer vision. However, their performance in multivariate long-term forecasting often falls short compared to simpler linear baselines.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-09 Dizhen Liang

Many real-world time series exhibit strong periodic structures arising from physical laws, human routines, or seasonal cycles. However, modern deep forecasting models often fail to capture these recurring patterns due to spectral bias and a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-05 Menglin Kong , Vincent Zhihao Zheng , Lijun Sun

This paper introduces LTLF, a temporal logic designed to express the frequency properties of event series in a natural but rigorous manner. By introducing novel, measure-sensitive operators, LTLF allows for the evaluation of frequencies and…

计算机科学中的逻辑 · 计算机科学 2026-05-29 Melissa Antonelli , Leonardo Ceragioli , Alessandro Giuseppe Buda , Giuseppe Primiero

Time series with long-term structure arise in a variety of contexts and capturing this temporal structure is a critical challenge in time series analysis for both inference and forecasting settings. Traditionally, state space models have…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-12 Anna K. Yanchenko , Sayan Mukherjee

Traditional time series analysis has long relied on pattern recognition, trained on static and well-established benchmarks. However, in real-world settings -- where policies shift, human behavior adapts, and unexpected events unfold --…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-16 Xinlei Wang , Mingtian Tan , Jing Qiu , Junhua Zhao , Jinjin Gu

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are often used to capture temporal dependency patterns. By stacking multi-layer LSTM networks, it can capture even more complex patterns. This paper explores the effectiveness of applying stacked LSTM…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-03 Frank Xiao

Time series analysis is crucial for understanding dynamics of complex systems. Recent advances in foundation models have led to task-agnostic Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) and Large Language Model-based Time Series Models (TSLLMs),…

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-09 Yongbo Yu , Jari Peeperkorn , Johannes De Smedt , Jochen De Weerdt

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs),…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2025-11-25 Eghbal Rahimikia , Hao Ni , Weiguan Wang

In many real-world application, e.g., speech recognition or sleep stage classification, data are captured over the course of time, constituting a Time-Series. Time-Series often contain temporal dependencies that cause two otherwise…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-01-10 John Cristian Borges Gamboa

Time series forecasting has widespread applications in urban life ranging from air quality monitoring to traffic analysis. However, accurate time series forecasting is challenging because real-world time series suffer from the distribution…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-15 Wenying Duan , Xiaoxi He , Lu Zhou , Lothar Thiele , Hong Rao

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-04 Zhiyuan Zhao , Haoxin Liu , Alexander Rodriguez , B. Aditya Prakash

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for $\textit{in-context fine-tuning}$ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-01 Abhimanyu Das , Matthew Faw , Rajat Sen , Yichen Zhou