相关论文: Bayesian model averaging for mortality forecasting…

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…

Probabilistic machine learning models are often insufficient to help with decisions on interventions because those models find correlations - not causal relationships. If observational data is only available and experimentation are…

Spatiotemporal data analysis with massive zeros is widely used in many areas such as epidemiology and public health. We use a Bayesian framework to fit zero-inflated negative binomial models and employ a set of latent variables from…

Evidence accumulation models (EAMs) are an important class of cognitive models used to analyze both response time and response choice data recorded from decision-making tasks. Developments in estimation procedures have helped EAMs become…

This study investigated the performance, explainability, and robustness of deployed artificial intelligence (AI) models in predicting mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The first study of its kind, we found that Bayesian…

This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

In this paper we briefly review the main methodological aspects concerned with the application of the Bayesian approach to model choice and model averaging in the context of variable selection in regression models. This includes prior…

Accidental damage is a typical component of motor insurance claim. Modeling of this nature generally involves analysis of past claim history and different characteristics of the insured objects and the policyholders. Generalized linear…

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

The increasing life expectancy enhances the importance of mortality forecasting. Most developing nations, including Tanzania, forecast mortality rates using static life tables. However, these tables exaggerate death probabilities by…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for effective public health interventions. This study compares Bayesian and Frequentist estimation frameworks within deterministic compartmental epidemic models, focusing on nonlinear least squares…

Bootstrap techniques (also called resampling computation techniques) have introduced new advances in modeling and model evaluation. Using resampling methods to construct a series of new samples which are based on the original data set,…

Generalized additive partial linear models (GAPLMs) are appealing for model interpretation and prediction. However, for GAPLMs, the covariates and the degree of smoothing in the nonparametric parts are often difficult to determine in…

In recent years, bankruptcy forecasting has gained lot of attention from researchers as well as practitioners in the field of financial risk management. For bankruptcy prediction, various approaches proposed in the past and currently in…

The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response, and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease…

By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to…