相关论文: Bayesian model averaging for mortality forecasting…

Joint models for longitudinal biomarkers and time-to-event data are widely used in longitudinal studies. Many joint modeling approaches have been proposed to deal with different types of longitudinal biomarkers and survival outcomes.…

When model uncertainty is handled by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or Bayesian model selection (BMS), the posterior distribution possesses a desirable "oracle property" for parametric inference, if for large enough data it is nearly as…

Traditionally Bayesian decision-theoretic design of experiments proceeds by choosing a design to minimise expectation of a given loss function over the space of all designs. The loss function encapsulates the aim of the experiment, and the…

Real-world clinical time series data sets exhibit a high prevalence of missing values. Hence, there is an increasing interest in missing data imputation. Traditional statistical approaches impose constraints on the data-generating process…

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

A specific implementation of Bayesian model averaging has recently been suggested as a method for the calibration of ensemble temperature forecasts. We point out the similarities between this new approach and an earlier method known as…

Nowadays model uncertainty has become one of the most important problems in both academia and industry. In this paper, we mainly consider the scenario in which we have a common model set used for model averaging instead of selecting a…

Mortality forecasting methods in the Lee-Carter tradition extrapolate temporal components via time-series models, often producing forecasts that systematically underpredict life expectancy at long horizons. This bias is consequential for…

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to create calibrated predictive probability…

Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This…

We have developed a frequentist approach for model selection which determines the consistency between any cosmological model and the data using the distribution of likelihoods from the iterative smoothing method. Using this approach, we…

An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection in multiple linear regression models. In particular, we present a hierarchical setting which allows for direct specification of a-priori beliefs about the number of…

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates.…