相关论文: Bayesian Poisson Mortality Projections with Incomp…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

In mortality modelling, cohort effects are often taken into consideration as they add insights about variations in mortality across different generations. Statistically speaking, models such as the Renshaw-Haberman model may provide a…

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

Count data with complex features arise in many disciplines, including ecology, agriculture, criminology, medicine, and public health. Zero inflation, spatial dependence, and non-equidispersion are common features in count data. There are…

This paper presents the application of a new semi-analytical method of linear regression for Poisson count data to COVID-19 events. The regression is based on the Bonamente and Spence (2022) maximum-likelihood solution for the best-fit…

The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…

The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

Modeling data with multivariate count responses is a challenging problem due to the discrete nature of the responses. Existing methods for univariate count responses cannot be easily extended to the multivariate case since the dependency…

Poisson's equation plays a fundamental role as a tool for performance evaluation and optimization of Markov chains. For continuous-time birth-death chains with possibly unbounded transition and cost rates as addressed herein, when…

We consider planning longitudinal covariate measurements in follow-up studies where covariates are time-varying. We assume that the entire cohort cannot be selected for longitudinal measurements due to financial limitations and study how a…

Missing data is a common problem in clinical data collection, which causes difficulty in the statistical analysis of such data. To overcome problems caused by incomplete data, we propose a new imputation method called projective resampling…

COVID-19 has led to excess deaths around the world, however it remains unclear how the mortality of other causes of death has changed during the pandemic. Aiming at understanding the wider impact of COVID-19 on other death causes, we study…

Longitudinal data are essential for studying within subject change and between subject differences in change. However, missing data, especially when the observed variables are nonnormal, remain a significant challenge in longitudinal…

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

Trial-based economic evaluations are typically performed on cross-sectional variables, derived from the responses for only the completers in the study, using methods that ignore the complexities of utility and cost data (e.g. skewness and…

Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions represents a challenging suite of problems in modern statistics. In this work we analyse the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution, a two parameter…

In the era of open data, Poisson and other count regression models are increasingly important. Still, conventional Poisson regression has remaining issues in terms of identifiability and computational efficiency. Especially, due to an…