相关论文: Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for Insuranc…

Prediction uncertainty quantification is a key research topic in recent years scientific and business problems. In insurance industries (\cite{parodi2023pricing}), assessing the range of possible claim costs for individual drivers improves…

Autocalibration is known to be an important requirement for insurance premiums since it guarantees that premium income balances corresponding claims, on average, not only at portfolio level but also inside each group paying similar…

The Tweedie GLM is a widely used method for predicting insurance premiums. However, the structure of the logarithmic mean is restricted to a linear form in the Tweedie GLM, which can be too rigid for many applications. As a better…

The insurance industry, with its large datasets, is a natural place to use big data solutions. However it must be stressed, that significant number of applications for machine learning in insurance industry, like fraud detection or claim…

Deep models trained on large amounts of data often incorporate implicit biases present during training time. If later such a bias is discovered during inference or deployment, it is often necessary to acquire new data and retrain the model.…

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

In this paper, we explore advanced modifications to the Tweedie regression model in order to address its limitations in modeling aggregate claims for various types of insurance such as automobile, health, and liability. Traditional Tweedie…

Two-part models and Tweedie generalized linear models (GLMs) have been used to model loss costs for short-term insurance contract. For most portfolios of insurance claims, there is typically a large proportion of zero claims that leads to…

Imbalanced datasets are commonplace in modern machine learning problems. The presence of under-represented classes or groups with sensitive attributes results in concerns about generalization and fairness. Such concerns are further…

The issue of fairness in machine learning models has recently attracted a lot of attention as ensuring it will ensure continued confidence of the general public in the deployment of machine learning systems. We focus on mitigating the harm…

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

This paper proposes a new family of Tweedie-based ratemaking models that explicitly account for mid-term policy cancellations. Using an automobile insurance dataset from a Canadian insurer, we document a marked difference in claims…

This paper evaluates Machine Learning (ML) in establishing ratemaking for new insurance schemes. To make the evaluation feasible, we established expected indemnities as premiums. Then, we use ML to forecast indemnities using a minimum set…

Detecting fraudulent auto-insurance claims remains a challenging classification problem, largely due to the extreme imbalance between legitimate and fraudulent cases. Standard learning algorithms tend to overfit to the majority class,…

Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the frequency…

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

In this paper, we propose a balancing training method to address problems in imbalanced data learning. To this end, we derive a new loss used in the balancing training phase that alleviates the influence of samples that cause an overfitted…

At the core of insurance business lies classification between risky and non-risky insureds, actuarial fairness meaning that risky insureds should contribute more and pay a higher premium than non-risky or less-risky ones. Actuaries,…

Tweedie's compound Poisson model is a popular method to model insurance claims with probability mass at zero and nonnegative, highly right-skewed distribution. In particular, it is not uncommon to have extremely unbalanced data with…