相关论文: Empirical Bayes Model Averaging with Influential O…

We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each…

In practical situations, most experimental designs often yield unbalanced data which have different numbers of observations per unit because of cost constraints, or missing data, etc. In this paper, we consider the Bayesian approach to…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters and utilize posterior samples for Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in prediction. However, despite the crucial role of flatness in the loss landscape in…

Model uncertainty is a central challenge in statistical models for binary outcomes such as logistic regression, arising when it is unclear which predictors should be included in the model. Many methods have been proposed to address this…

Empirical Bayes (EB) is a popular framework for large-scale inference that aims to find data-driven estimators to compete with the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior. Two principled approaches to EB estimation have emerged over the…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

This article studies Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of competing expensive computer models in a typical nuclear physics setup. While it is well known that BMA accounts for the additional uncertainty of the model itself, we…

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the…

We revisit the classical, full-fledged Bayesian model averaging (BMA) paradigm to ensemble pre-trained and/or lightly-finetuned foundation models to enhance the classification performance on image and text data. To make BMA tractable under…

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT)…

This paper builds on recent research that focuses on regression modeling of continuous bounded data, such as proportions measured on a continuous scale. Specifically, it deals with beta regression models with mixed effects from a Bayesian…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

Clinical investigators are increasingly interested in discovering computational biomarkers from short-term longitudinal omics data sets. This work focuses on Bayesian regression and variable selection for longitudinal omics datasets, which…

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are common in economics. Model averaging is a natural and formal…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…