相关论文: Coupling physical understanding and statistical mo…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Ice sheet models are used to study the deglaciation of North America at the end of the last ice age (past 21,000 years), so that we might understand whether and how existing ice sheets may reduce or disappear under climate change. Though…
Flooding is one of the most disastrous natural hazards, responsible for substantial economic losses. A predictive model for flood-induced financial damages is useful for many applications such as climate change adaptation planning and…
This paper proposes a physics-guided machine learning approach that combines advanced machine learning models and physics-based models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks. We first build a recurrent…
The environmental impact of Large Language Models (LLMs) on data centers hosting these models is becoming a significant concern. While many efforts have focused on reducing the substantial training overhead of LLMs, carbon and water…
Northern Chile is one of the most arid regions in the world, with precipitation mainly occurring during austral summer, between December and April 1966-2015. The aim of this study is to classify the main weather regimes derived from sea…
Alpine permafrost environments are highly vulnerable and sensitive to changes in regional and global climate trends. Thawing and degradation of permafrost has numerous adverse environmental, economic, and societal impacts. Mathematical…
Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…
Experimental measurements in collisions of small systems from p+p to p/d/3He+A at RHIC and the LHC reveal particle emission patterns that are strikingly similar to those observed in A+A collisions. One explanation of these patterns is the…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
In many drylands around the globe, vegetation self-organizes into regular spatial patterns in response to aridity stress. We consider the regularly-spaced vegetation bands, on gentle hill-slopes, that survive low rainfall conditions by…
Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
The dynamics of a rain forest is extremely complex involving births, deaths and growth of trees with complex interactions between trees, animals, climate, and environment. We consider the patterns of recruits (new trees) and dead trees…
We analyze the statistics of gaps ($\Delta H$) between successive avalanches in one dimensional random field Ising models (RFIMs) in an external field $H$ at zero temperature. In the first part of the paper we study the nearest-neighbour…
In this study, we investigate the dynamics of a spatial and non spatial prey-predator interaction model that includes the following: (i) fear effect incorporated in prey birth rate; (ii) group defence of prey against predators; and (iii)…
Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…
Climate change is becoming a widely recognized risk factor of farmer-herder conflict in Africa. Using an 8 year dataset (Jan 2015 to Sep 2022) of detailed weather and terrain data across four African nations, we apply statistical and…
We present a shallow, isothermal, Newtonian model for the transient interaction of lava flows with topography. Numerical integrations and simple mathematical approximations are deployed to quantify how topography controls lava thicknesses…