相关论文: Sequential Bayesian Risk Set Inference for Robust …

We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a…

In this article we consider a simple step stress set up under the cumulative exposure model assumption. At each stress level the lifetime distribution of the experimental units are assumed to follow the generalized exponential distribution.…

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Standard Bayesian analyses can be difficult to perform when the full likelihood, and consequently the full posterior distribution, is too complex and difficult to specify or if robustness with respect to data or to model misspecifications…

Over the last few years, sampling-based stochastic optimal control (SOC) frameworks have shown impressive performances in reinforcement learning (RL) with applications in robotics. However, such approaches require a large amount of samples…

Bayesian optimization is a framework for global search via maximum a posteriori updates rather than simulated annealing, and has gained prominence for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we cast Bayesian optimization as a…

Identifying dynamical system (DS) is a vital task in science and engineering. Traditional methods require numerous calls to the DS solver, rendering likelihood-based or least-squares inference frameworks impractical. For efficient parameter…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Most research in Bayesian optimization (BO) has focused on \emph{direct feedback} scenarios, where one has access to exact values of some expensive-to-evaluate objective. This direction has been mainly driven by the use of BO in machine…

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

In an indirect Gaussian sequence space model lower and upper bounds are derived for the concentration rate of the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest shrinking to the parameter value $\theta^\circ$ that generates the data.…

We present an optimizer which uses Bayesian optimization to tune the system parameters of distributed stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Given a specific context, our goal is to quickly find efficient configurations which appropriately…

We study the generalization performance of $\text{full-batch}$ optimization algorithms for stochastic convex optimization: these are first-order methods that only access the exact gradient of the empirical risk (rather than gradients with…

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

We consider a simulation-based Ranking and Selection (R&S) problem with input uncertainty, where unknown input distributions can be estimated using input data arriving in batches of varying sizes over time. Each time a batch arrives,…

We propose a Bayesian Sequential procedure to test hypotheses concerning the Relative Risk between two specific treatments based on the binary data obtained from the two-arm clinical trial. Our development is based on the optimal sequential…

Sequential Bayesian optimal experimental design (SBOED) for PDE-governed inverse problems is computationally challenging, especially for infinite-dimensional random field parameters. High-fidelity approaches require repeated forward and…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators'…